LOS ANGELES-Despite risks that can't be ignored, experts foresee bright times ahead for the already much-improved debt markets in 2011. Commercial mortgage markets improved dramatically in 2010, observers say, and that improvement is expected to continue throughout this year.

"The risk of changes in the global capital markets creates a degree of uncertainty for lenders and borrowers alike,” Spencer Levy, executive managing director of CBRE Capital Markets, says in a recent report by CBRE Econometric Advisors and CBRE Capital Markets. On the other hand, the group’s latest index, which tracks the momentum of deal activity in the market for commercial mortgage loans, shows that lending activity steadily increased throughout 2010. “The index stood at a value of 24 in September of 2009 versus a high of 170 in February of 2007,” says Levy. “The way to best interpret this change is in absolutes; there was an 86% decline in lending volume over this 31 month period.”

Even with the uncertainty ahead, brokerage firm Jones Lang LaSalle predicts bright times ahead for debt markets. “A combination of brightening economic prospects, strengthening and more consistent employment growth, highly expansionary monetary policy and still-low, long-term risk-free interest rates is expected to significantly improve lender and investor confidence in 2011,” says a recent JLL commercial financing outlook report. “Brighter times are ahead in the new year for the commercial real estate debt markets due to the gradual recovery of the commercial mortgage-backed securities origination market, which is expected to broaden and accelerate in the coming year, and the expected production increase by lenders of all types.”

Tom Fish, co-head and executive managing director of JLL’s real estate investment banking practice, points out that “Given the financing spigot temporarily turned off, a natural evolution occurred last year in which lenders returned to safe lending—targeting only low-leveraged, trophy assets,” he says.“Now, demand has begun to exceed supply, and lenders are moving more aggressively to place capital.”

Fish adds that “In the following months, we expect to see lenders move increasingly up the risk continuum as we’re still in a low overall yield environment, and there’s a high demand for yield generation.”

According to Mike Melody, co-head and executive managing director of Jones Lang LaSalle’s real estate banking practice, “The primary impediment to financing will be the significant number of overleveraged assets that still require recapitalization and deleveraging. However, a lack of capital is definitely not the problem. With more capital than transactions currently available, borrowers will be placing a greater emphasis on asset type and real estate risk, with core market multifamily and office receiving the best terms.”

Competition, he says, is affecting investment sales terms as cap rates peaked in the first quarter of 2010 and are now clearly compressing. “At one end of the spectrum, robust demand for trophy office properties in top-tier and some secondary markets has pushed cap rates down by nearly 200 basis points and caused values to rebound by up to 50% from the market’s trough in certain cases,” he says. “Interest in multifamily properties has also been very strong and is expected to stay that way due to pent-up demand as the residential housing market remains weak and potential renters are tired of living at home, or sharing space with roommates.”

Tom Melody, co-head and executive managing director of JLL’s real estate investment banking practice is “bullish on the state of commercial real estate financing and activity for 2011.” Granted, he says, “we’re starting from a much smaller base of transactional volume than we were four years ago due to stricter underwriting, but values have stabilized and capital has definitely returned to the marketplace. Opportunities abound and we are poised to capture them for our clients.”

Delta Associates also considers conditions ripe for a market rebound. “While there is much more ground to cover, the rebound is in full effect,” Delta says in a recent report. “Risk has been repriced and investors with access to capital are pumping life into the market.”

At year-end 2010, the company saw several key themes emerge in the investment sales market: “Core assets, especially trophy product and high-rise apartments in major markets, are generating competitive buying situations; Distressed assets, which we thought would drive market activity in 2009 and 2010, never became a major source of transaction volume in this cycle; Distress is now declining in select metro markets and has stabilized nationally; and the demand for space is rising as fundamentals improve, so prices are rising based on performance as well as cap rate compression.”

According to Delta Associates, although threats remain, notably the vast number of loans maturing in 2011 and 2012, “lenders have shown a willingness to work out new terms, and so far, distressed assets have not been a major stumbling block to a real estate recovery. We expect an improving national economy and an improving commercial real estate market in 2011.”

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.