CMBS originations also increased, more than ten-fold, and estimates put 2011 volume at anywhere from $35 billion to $50 billion. That’s great news for people looking for funds, but the situation is still dire in the securitized market. Trepp just reported that the January delinquency rate hit its highest level—9.34%, or $61.4 billion—in spite of the flurry of new deals that took place and the state of spreads. Sure, many troubled loans are being resolved, but given the sheer magnitude of them, it’s hard to believe that even half will find a solution. As noted by Trepp, one thing these new deals are doing is keeping the overall delinquency rate low. But for how long? And are more and more deals the best idea, really?

GSEs like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA accounted for another chunk of the overall deal volume. Fannie and Freddie have long been the dominant players in the robust multifamily market, but their recent activity has actually waned. With the government expected to unveil their GSE reform plans in the coming week or so, the fate of these players remains a question.

Meanwhile, lending activity by commercial banks declined, and we’re still getting reports of more regional banks in trouble due to failed loans.

So yes, the financing market is certainly moving again, but I don’t think it’s time to celebrate just yet. There’s still $1.4 trillion in outstanding debt in the market, which will gradually come due in the next several years. A majority of the commercial product backing those loans is underwater, and it’s unlikely that it will all get recapitalized. And the market has remained relatively stable in large part due to intervention by the Fed. How much more can they do, though?

Personally, I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop. My only hope is that the people behind the deals that are getting done these days retain the lessons learned from this most recent crisis, and be more cautious than aggressive. But given history, my confidence levels are pretty low.