[IMGCAP(1)]The future of banking lies in its past.
Now that I have introduced the topic of “lies” and linked it to the banking industry, I am tempted to say, “But the future of banking does not lie in liar loans.”
Get the pun? It’s a little bit cynical, but I think it’s fair.
Banks―and their liar loans, and all of the financial shenanigans that contributed to our current economic quagmire―represent one of the prime culprits in the current downturn drama.
What I am willing to say is that we really ought to consider a regressive approach to banking. I take my cue from International Monetary Fund economist Rex Ghosh. He says that, as the world closes in on the three-year mark of the beginning of the global financial crisis, it’s not enough to rely on new regulations to prevent future disasters. A fundamental change in mindset is required, Ghosh says. “Banks need to get back to the boring,” he declares.
We have all heard seasoned CRE professionals say that as we return to a more rational market, we need to get back to basics, but what about banks? According to Ghosh, boring is good. “Banks should get used to being a much smaller proportion of the economy, like it was before the 1990s,” he says. “Bankers should also be aware of credit and counter-party risks. They need to know who they’re doing business with, know to whom they are lending and not rely solely on credit ratings.”
For banks to do what Ghosh proposes, they would have to behave rationally. They would have to give up the excitement and the easy money that transformed what was once a staid industry into a government-sanctioned version of a gambling hall, with the government saying, “No matter how much the house loses, we won’t let it fail.”
Who, in their right mind, would want to return to a world in which the house is responsible for covering its own bets? Who would want to swap the new world of dazzling results and spectacular returns for the steady, predictable returns of the old-time banking industry?
I would, for one. I would like to see banking go back to the past to realize its future. How about you?
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