Japan started building its 1,250-mile high speed passenger rail system during the 1960s. In recent years, Europe has caught up, extending and expanding high speed connections between major cities. And China moves rapidly forward with completing the largest high speed network in the world—more than 10,000 miles--by the end of the decade. In contrast, U.S. transportation officials struggle to kick start any projects as skepticism grows about cost and viability.

Despite a burst of planning activity bankrolled by a $10 billion stimulus boost, U.S. rail initiatives, involving proposals for 11 high speed regional corridors across the country, have faltered and appear to go nowhere fast:

  • Governors in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin spurned projects, concerned about their budget-busting potential,
  • California drew scorn over a plan to build its first multi-billion dollar section of track in a low-use corridor, which wouldn’t be operational until later sections are built,
  • Critics gained ground with arguments about whether trains could operate without significant subsidies that states ultimately cannot afford
  • And even some advocates concede the federal government should regroup and focus initial investment on lines that offer the greatest economic returns, short-circuiting spending on potentially low ridership corridors.

In rebuilding after World War II, Japan wisely placed its bets on engineering multi-modal transportation platforms—high-speed rail, transit systems, and highways—to move its densely-packed population in and out of major urban centers. European countries retained their hub and spoke rail systems serving large cities, providing the bones for later HSR lines. Relatively short distances between Euro urban centers also made train travel an attractive alternative to motorway congestion or airport hassles.

At the same time, U.S. transport planners concentrated transportation strategies on interstates (cars) and airports (planes)—inter-urban passenger rail service was substantially curtailed during the 1950s and 1960s and only a handful of cities retained commuter rail lines. California’s once expansive passenger train network was dismantled in favor of vaunted freeway systems. As a result, not only has train travel become an alien transport mode in most parts of the U.S., but also new high speed rail corridors would need to carve through heavily developed suburban districts at significant cost, potentially dislocating people from homes and businesses in contentious not-in-my-backyard battles. Since most American cities do not have adequate mass transit to integrate into proposed inter-city rail lines, passengers would still need to drive cars to access trains and do business once they arrived at destinations. That’s a major drawback to HSR: You must tie trains into transit systems in a seamless door-to door system-- otherwise people may not be inclined to use them.

High speed rail proponents had viewed early Obama Administration support as a game changer for finally overhauling the nation’s increasingly obsolete transport infrastructure, improving mobility, and coping with productivity-sapping congestion. They envisioned light rail and subway lines intersecting at high speed rail stations with direct links to airports, commercial centers, and residential districts. Taken a step further, new transit-oriented development could help establish dense residential neighborhoods around urbanizing centers and more pedestrian-friendly communities, reducing car dependency. But deficit realities and the new Congress’s antipathy to jobs stimulus programs put the brakes on these wide-eyed, long-term rebuilding agendas—which realistically would cost hundreds of billions of dollars over decades to complete. Now more sober objectives recalibrate into smaller bore possibilities, focusing on the most economically feasible projects.

High speed rail only makes sense in dense corridors with close by major cities that have mass transit and the Northeast is the only region in U.S. that meets that profile. In fact, less-than-high speed Amtrak Acela trains (averaging about 80 miles per hour) between Washington and Boston are almost always full, charging tickets comparable to plane fares. Amtrak now estimates building a dedicated Northeast high speed rail line—with appropriate right of ways, tunnels, and bridges to handle trains traveling 200 miles per hour over 400 miles of tracks—would cost nearly $120 billion.

Of the remaining 10 proposed lines, realistically only a handful show much near-term promise—Southern California (LA) to San Francisco, a Seattle to Portland route in the Pacific Northwest, and possibly part of the Midwest line with a Chicago hub. Over time, the Northeast Corridor line could extend to Richmond and further south possibly to the North Carolina’s Research Triangle and Atlanta. Sprawling Florida and Texas markets arguably need more local mass transit before HSR makes sense.

Now the big question remains will Congress approve funding for any of these lines—without massive federal infusions nothing will happen since the states can’t afford them.

Under the political circumstances: Don’t bet on HSR anywhere soon.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.