Maturity risks for these quality assets will also vary by product type and geographic market, according to Marc Francis, president and CEO of the Delphine Real Estate Advisory Group Ltd. in Mineola, NY. "Multifamily and hotel deals in the gateway cities and with strong sponsors are at the top of the food chain," Francis says. The market has improved enough since the darkest days of the downturn that new loans are now being made on such properties. "But a refinance of an already performing asset involves the least risk," so those assets will find ready financing.

Turning to the bottom of the heap, those properties that are vacant, in tough markets or have a bad sponsor, are burdened by a high maturity risk. "There is not going to be enough capital to recapitalize" that product, says Mozer, "so there will either be foreclosures or discounted payoff s."

Awful property or not, overall loan maturity risk "won't really be a big deal at all," says Dawn Coulson, a partner at Epps Yong & Coulson LLP in Los Angeles. "Most of the banks I work with are doing a soft landing," she says. "They aren't letting these loans simply go into default." Instead, she says, they work with the borrowers to get additional collateral.

Coulson points out that banks are not just simply extending, but are "working it out," which she says includes working with the OCC or the FDIC to make their investors happy. "So there is a risk, but the banks are managing it."

The properties between these two extremes present a definite gray area. Mozer cites a deal in Las Vegas that had a maturity coming up. The deal involved what he calls good real estate and a good sponsor, but he points out that they had some problems.

"The property got hit with a lot of vacancy and lower rents," he says. "Some people are saying no to Vegas and some people are saying no to retail. They have enough cash but aren't quite stable yet." Another problem, he says, was that the client had an issue with the lender, and even though it was worked through, the property was saddled with the stigma of credit issues.

"The point nowadays is if there are too many issues, and if it is a ‘story' deal, it is harder to tell that story," Mozer says. "We got loan quotes, but the proceeds that we were going to get were too low." The issues that affected the property "were too much to get to the level of financing we wanted."

Mozer's example illustrates that when too many uncertainties surround a property, finding new financing can be a risky proposition. But the Las Vegas deal is just one example. As Francis points out, there are broader risks facing the entire industry. "The major risks affecting the loans coming due involve rapidly rising insurance and commodity prices (mainly oil) coupled with a weak overall American economy," he says. "Investment properties cannot perform without paying tenants." Real estate investors will need to be especially forward-looking and focused on the big economic picture when making a purchase or negotiating a loan.

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