It’s all quite remarkable—a formerly pristine hamlet in western Wyoming suffers ozone pollution levels higher than Los Angeles because of nearby natural gas drilling, nuclear power plant waste plunges into the Pacific threatening to wipe out Japan’s fishing industry, BP prepares to resume Gulf Coast drilling less than a year after its oil well blew up with dead porpoises and sea turtles still washing up on area beaches, and the drill, drill, drill folks are back thanks to rising oil prices over the Middle East political contagion.

For more than 40 years, the United States has sidestepped opportunities for conservation and developing new energy technologies simply because big energy businesses (oil companies) and related industries (automobile manufacturers including their labor unions) have lobbied (basically paid off) politicians from both parties to short-circuit new initiatives that might have created world class businesses by now and made us more energy independent. We probably would not have had as much interest in getting caught up either in outrageously costly wars in Iraq or Afghanistan or be involved in propping up failing oil state regimes, the real targets of insidious groups like Al Qaeda.

Let’s also note that spiking oil prices have helped generate all our recessions since the early 1970s including lending a supporting role in 2008. And now they are rising again to near record levels. If Saudi Arabia collapses all bets are off to continuing economic recovery. Higher oil prices are leading to higher food prices, meanwhile, basically threatening to smother any recent meager gains in hiring and wages. When inflation gets going the usual antidote is higher interest rates, but raising rates now would undermine the fragile recovery too and hit real estate markets especially hard. But we may be headed into this uncomfortable box at a time when the government faces shut down over fears about rising national debt levels.

At the same time, the average American cannot afford to buy a house even at rock bottom pricing levels. Without credit, Americans can’t afford much of anything. And so why should we expect much more from our government?

Dealing with energy costs is really a noose around our necks, which has been tightening for years. And at some point, maybe soon, the trap door springs. Suburbia where a majority of Americans live has been built off of cars and cheap gas—do you want to think about what will happen to already savaged home values and nearby commercial properties if gas prices escalate much further? Now our oil potentate “friends” always find a way to manipulate prices to suck us back into oil dependency after spikes, but what happens if radical Islamists take over the show or wild eyed terrorist groups blow up key wells? Even in a tamer scenario, China and India tap more oil for their burgeoning industries pushing up prices across the world and making car driving more expensive. We can always push Canada to expand its tar sands industry, but the dirty reality is that extruding oil from tar sands is an energy intensive process all by itself and produces a highly polluting version of oil.

For now, even nuclear power proponents must have second thoughts—disasters waiting to happen (spent highly radioactive fuel rods) sit in holding tanks next to existing plants around the country with nowhere to go. Expanding solar technology requires massive amounts of water, and in many parts of the country population gains and climate change are diminishing our water supplies (through much of the Sunbelt and Western U.S. in particular). Yeah, so let’s drill some more off shore when we haven’t even figured out what wrong with the BP rig. By the way, BP’s contractor on the oil rig disaster, TransOcean, just paid its top executives record bonuses… Keep up all that lobbying.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.