ICSC CEO Mike Kercheval (a friend and past colleague) is justifiably relieved and buoyed by the rebounding attendance at this week’s annual RECON event in Las Vegas. My cab driver’s convention sheet listed expected arrivals of 30,000, but Mike reported thousands more as last minute walk-ins inflated the pre-registrations. And the convention booth area was packed to the gills after the past few lackluster years. The big retail event will be hard pressed to ramp up again to the 2006, 2007 attendance peaks of 50,000, but the renewed interest reinforces the notion of ongoing (albeit modest) recovery in U.S. retail real estate.

It was pretty obvious at the convention that the real action in the retail universe has shifted outside the U.S. and away from Europe to markets like China, India and Brazil where burgeoning middle-class populations with more disposable income look to secure the trappings of affluent lifestyles. While America’s standard of living ebbs, these countries offer significant opportunities for exporting U.S. development acumen. Industry leaders also are focusing increasingly on the Latin American, if for no other reason than to figure out how to market better to the increasingly influential and enlarging Hispanic population in the U.S. On panels and in seminars a consistent theme was discussing how to tap the Latin wellspring. Joel Kotkin, the author and trends analyst, made that point repeatedly with me in our general session presentation on Monday.

We also talked about how the now long-in-the-tooth stand-alone “town center” mall concept of the 1970s and 1980s needs to transform into a “back-to-the-future” true town center or village configuration incorporating residential elements and linking more directly to surrounding neighborhoods and commercial districts. Old school one-off land use planning—a subdivision here, a strip center there, and mall over yonder—needs to change, integrating projects and neighborhoods together with proper infrastructure improvements and open space for parks and recreation where possible.

Time-sapped consumers whose pocketbooks are tapped increasingly want out of costly car dependency and look for greater convenience in how they live, work and shop.

Local governments which can work together with various developers to re-position districts and communities around existing, but flagging retail mall hubs have a chance to re-invent themselves as many suburbs gradually evolve into more urban-looking places. Those communities that don’t take action, risk the consequences of deteriorating tax base and decline. Their malls certainly won’t be very attractive to retailers, who can find plenty of options in the massively over-stored marketplace.

As for Las Vegas—my cabby is just one of many area residents losing his home in foreclosure. He’s getting out of town and moving to Houston, bewailing how banks will continue to fund the half-built $4 billion Fountainbleu hotel casino complex at the north end of the strip, but won’t work with him to save his home mortgage. Across from the Fountainbleu sits the skeleton of another massive project, stopped cold in mid development. The totally over-the-top City Center has opened and the lavish new green-glass Cosmopolitan casino tower adds to the cityscape’s pyramid, Eiffel Tower, and faux New York City skyline. Various recently completed condo projects sit half empty.

The bellhop lady in my hotel said she was happy for the busy week—“it’s been slow outside of the conventions.”

Las Vegas where the only thing to do is spend, consume, and lose money stands as the ultimate testament to the country’s credit induced binge. Recovery there will be a long time in coming despite the improved mood and numbers at RECON.

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Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.