Have Americans been so fat and happy for so long and become such believers in our own exceptionalism, that we can’t face hard realities? Certainly our politicians think that’s the case—we continue to hear the President’s numbing sugar-coated talk about green jobs and job training programs that will turn the unemployment rate around. Every week he’s at another factory in shirtsleeves wearing goggles. Meanwhile many of our public high schools graduate students with barely minimal functional reading and writing skill sets, and colleges pamper students with grade inflation and pay football coaches multiples of engineering and science professors.
And on the Republican side—we get the same old, same old—by cutting taxes and shrinking government we’ll stoke employment growth. One Presidential candidate—the former Minnesota governor—double downed recently calling for significant cuts in corporate and capital gains taxes which he says would increase GDP by 5%. It’s pure sophistry, numbers pulled from thin air.
Others say the problem is too much regulation—it’s the EPA’s fault for everything. Oh yeah, over-regulation led to the financial crisis, the BP disaster, last year’s mining explosion in West Virginia, and various forms of now emerging hydro-fracking pollution. If business was left to do its thing, the economy would be in high gear. We can return to the late 1960s when rivers burned and city air was a health hazard. Or go to China’s model where no can drink the water.
While the politicians pander, the economy goes nowhere fast and demand for real estate remains stuck in neutral where it will stay, I believe, for the foreseeable future no matter what the government does. The problem is the standard of living erodes for a majority of Americans, because their jobs can be done out of the country for less than we have been paying. And many of our American-based, stock market traded multinationals take full advantage downscaling U.S. operations and transferring (not just manufacturing) jobs overseas. The other major factor is technology, which eliminates the need or devalues formerly decently paying jobs—everything from secretaries to travel agents, newspaper reporters, and mailmen. Google, Facebook and Twitter aren’t exactly jobs engines. Simply, the economy isn’t producing as many jobs as we need, because companies can be more profitable by hiring fewer people here. Now will any politician say that? Of course not. That’s how our elected leaders lose their jobs—because we don’t want to hear that kind of talk.
It might be patriotic and helpful—if companies were a little less productive, and directed more profits to creating more U.S. jobs. Employees and unions need to face the obvious-- that they will be paid less and have fewer benefits—people will have to save more and live more frugally. And we have to start conserving in our daily lives—drive less and use less electricity. What’s wrong with in living in smaller homes or owning one less SUV? Whether we want to or not the global marketplace is forcing us in that direction. That’s our reality. Talking green jobs and cutting taxes won’t make any difference.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
