Thus far this year, New Jersey has seen 30,100 new jobs, and a gain of 50,000 for 2011 would be good, he says. Office leasing totals in Northern and Central New Jersey have risen 4.1% and 14.9%, respectively, the report says. Notable deals include Evonik DeGussa Corp.’s 150,500-square-foot lease at 299 Jefferson Rd. in Parsippany, Lifecell Corp.’s 117,937-square-foot lease at 95 Corporate Dr. in Bridgewater and Celgene’s full-building lease for 104,323 square feet at 33 Technology Dr. in Warren Township.

But even more net new jobs are needed to accommodate growth and employment lost during the recession. Those companies that are growing or relocating are clearly favoring class A space, preferably on the Hudson River waterfront. The overall vacancy rate in Northern New Jersey is 17.3%, 0.6 percentage points higher than one year ago, though class A vacancy, at 18.7%, is down 1.5 percentage points from its September 2010 peak. And asking rents have remained flat, at $25.53, while class A space asking rents rose 8.3% from the first quarter to $27.75 per square foot. The Central New Jersey the overall vacancy rate, at 20.4 percent, is down 1.4 percentage points from mid-year 2010, with asking rents flat at $22.85, largely because of the large vacancy at the Lucent Technologies site in Holmdel.

“It’s a real challenge in New Jersey,” Medina says. “We haven’t seen a significant growth in rents for 20 years.”

The industrial market has been seeing a boost, with 12 transactions over 100,000 square feet during the quarter boosting the amount of space leased vs. a year ago by 74%. The current vacancy rate has dropped to 10% from 11.2% one year ago. Average asking rents held steady through the second quarter at $5.62 per square foot.

“This isn’t surprising,” Medina says. “What’s driving the industrial space is the logistics,” as New Jersey is part of the second wealthiest metropolitan area in the world behind Tokyo, and also includes Philadelphia. “With the dollar weaker than before the recession, we’re back to importing goods, as well.”

Nor is it surprising that industrial space is farther along in the recovery than the office sector, as global flows of goods bounce back faster than white-collar employment. Infrastructure investment has received bipartisan support from both New York and New Jersey, also a positive for the future of industrial space.

But threats remain. Should the United States not reach a timely solution to the debt ceiling crisis and default on some obligations, it could slow the recovery, at least short term.

“Many believed that allowing Lehman Brothers to go under wouldn’t have consequences, but it deepened the recession,” Medina says. “If there’s a belief on the part of financial institutions that the haven of the United States is no longer a safe harbor, so many events could derail a recovery that’s beginning.”