EAST WINDSOR, NJ-Buoyed by several large leases, the Central New Jersey industrial market ended the second quarter on the upswing, while Northern New Jersey remains flat, according to the recently released “Industrial Market Snapshots” for the Northern and Central New Jersey markets from Cassidy Turley. The result could be the first speculative development since before the recession.

The central section of the state reported a vacancy rate of at 9.6%, dropping from 10.6% in the first quarter, the report says. Previously, the vacancy rate had lingered between 10.5% and 10.8% since Q3 of 2009. The majority of submarkets reported positive absorption in Q2, especially along the Turnpike corridor among larger distribution facilities.

“Now that the overall vacancy rate has dropped below 10% for the first time, this is more talk of spec development,” Doug Bansbach, senior vice president, principal, tells GlobeSt.com.

Wakefern Food’s 1.064 million-square-foot lease in the Exit 12 submarket does skew the results a bit, but Bansbach also notes that the deal is just for three years while Wakefern waits for its build-to-suit facility to be complete. Other large deals include the 275,000-square-foot renewal/expansion of Agfa at 400 Heller Park Court within the Exit 8A submarket.

“There is great deal velocity,” Bansbach says, particularly for the larger users who serve the Eastern corridor, rather than smaller regions. But large spaces are filling up, resulting in development talk.

The average asking rental rate in the region remained flat for the second quarter at $4.44 per square foot compared to $4.45 in the previous quarter. Landlord concessions continue to be prevalent, with free rent and tenant improvements commonly offered in lease negotiations. Even so, the rate is an improvement from 18 months ago, when “panic deals” were signed at $2 per square foot, Bansbach says.

Northern New Jersey remains hampered by the lack of job growth and an older stock of properties, says Howard Weinberg, senior VP, principal. The region reported a vacancy rate of 7.6% for the quarter, up slightly from 7.5% in Q1. Activity has been relatively flat and the vacancy rate remains at historically high levels. “It’s jobs,” Weinberg says. “I don’t think there is a strong demand. There’s uncertainty in the marketplace.”

Some submarkets, such as the Meadowlands, remain appealing, Weinberg says. The 2.5 million-square-foot Mount Olive area saw a huge boost in leasing over the last six months due to extremely aggressive pricing, in the mid $3s to mid $4s per square foot for buildings that have 24-foot ceiling heights. But such modern facilities are much more rare in Northern New Jersey than farther south.

“Our inventory in Northern New Jersey is 30, 40 years old, and they typically have lower ceiling heights,” Weinberg says. “Those landlords will have to be extremely aggressive to get tenants, offering low rents and high tenant improvement funds.”

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