Okay. Let’s get this straight. The United States economy just registered a monthly gain in employment of zero, after jobs growth has been backsliding since spring, and we have barely made a dent in recapturing nine million in lost jobs since the recession. In addition we’re adding approximately 4 million more people to the work force each year—young adults turning 21, most of whom want or need jobs. So we have a major jobs problem.
Now we understand that U.S. companies sit on $2 trillion of cash—they are “uncertain” about the future, worried about tax policy, and health care costs, not to mention too many expensive regulations that in some cases would keep them from taking advantage of customers or polluting. These companies are obviously profitable and they have become more profitable by not hiring as much in the U.S., and either using technology or lower cost offshore labor. Good for them and their executive suites who have giant pay days—the average CEO now earns 350 times what the lowest paid company worker makes. These top dogs also get taxed less than they ever have so they keep more of that money. Meanwhile unemployment is over 9% and these companies’ stock prices are tanking because the underlying economy is so anemic.
Okay so we have this major jobs problem, our companies have plenty of money, but they won’t hire in the U.S., and the President decides to make another speech. Now you might think the Congress would jump to hear the President on the issue and clear time on its schedule of procedural votes as soon as possible. But we know that might be inconvenient for some of our representatives. So the President caves and his speech is scheduled so that it won’t conflict with an NFL game—have you ever heard of an important Presidential address to the members of Congress airing at 7 pm ET, 4pm on the West Coast?
And despite this very real jobs crisis and disconnect with company profitability, most Americans would prefer to sit on a couch, drink beer, eat Buffalo wings and be distracted by football than to focus in on what to do about our increasingly sad plight. A good quarterback sack will take the sting away and who needs to hear Obama talk about small bore infrastructure spending and payroll tax cuts—we’ve heard it all before—watched by stone faced Republicans, who want to keep tax cuts for rich people and slash government spending. We’ve heard that all before too.
Meanwhile all the people I talk to in the real estate industry desperately want and need more employment growth to create demand for space. And it’s just not happening. To make it happen, government and business will need to join forces to create jobs so that more money gets pumped back into the system. The average worker won’t be able to make as much as in the past, but companies cannot afford to sit on all their cash and let the leadership corps get fat and happy at everyone else’s expense. And as long as the country lets their leaders keep posturing and puts pro football over finding solutions for the ongoing jobs crisis, we’re in for very tough times.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
