“The biggest problem the United States faces is terms of being an energy leader is creating a stable and constant demand market,” says Elliott Gansner, sales director-North America of pvXchange International, a Berlin-based exchange and procurement service provider for the photovoltaic industry. “That’s what New Jersey has done well. There’s been some volatility, but policy has remained stable.”

And there was plenty of opportunity.“There’s a unique concentration of warehouses around the New York metro area,” Gansner says.

One observer, however, says any celebration is premature. While the numbers are accurate, the state’s 60-day time period to acknowledge paperwork could have affected the results, says Gaurav Naik, a principal of GeoGenix, an Old Bridge, NJ-based solar installer. “A lot of that 40 megawatts was account for prior to December 31,” Naik says. “Let’s wait to see how the entire year plays out. A lot of the projects said to be in the pipeline this year may be postponed indefinitely because they were started under a different environment.”

That environment included SRECs that were trading for just over $600 each earlier in the year, and now are projected to sell for $400 on the Flett Exchange. This greatly affects the payback period for solar installations.

Even the sharp decline in the SREC market hasn’t completely crashed the solar market. The key is that the price can be forecast and built into pro formas, Gansner says. What will slow the market is the 30% cash grant from the Federal government will expire at the end of the year, and revert to tax credits.

Still, for now there is some uncertainty as companies take a wait-and-see attitude about SREC pricing, Hahn says. But the speed of installation could result in a quick rebound if legislation stabilizes the market. “We don’t need to go to $600 SRECs,” Hahn says. The price of installations also has dropped sharply, he notes, resulting in five- to seven-year payback on a 25-year asset. “The economics still make sense.”

In many ways, a more apt comparison for New Jersey is the largest solar market in the world, Gansner says. “New Jersey is this microcosm of Germany,” Gansner says. “There’s a lot of commercial roof space. Retail rates are fairly high.”

Ultimately, however, California will surpass New Jersey once again, simply because of its size. Massachusetts, which has created its own version of the SREC program, is up and coming. But the Garden State should continue to be a leader.“Let’s focus on the positive,” Naik says. “We’ve surpassed the goal of 10,000 installations in the state.”