Torto

LAS VEGAS-"Putting it in perspective" might have been a fitting title for a presentation here Wednesday by CBRE chief global economist Raymond Torto and Americas chief economist Asieh Mansour. The two presented their views on the economy, and the implications of economic forces for real estate, at the CBRE inaugral 2011 Americas Summit, where Los Angeles-based CBRE is hosting thousands of commercial real estate owners, occupiers, investors and service professionals this week.

Mansour focused on the US economy, while Torto addressed the European and other international economies. In summary, they pointed to some encouraging signs in the US economy and doubted that we will slide into recession, were less optimistic about Europe's economy and had promising things to say about the economies of leading nations in Asia and Latin America. Torto and Mansour made it clear, however, that significant risks remain for the US economy and that a recession is a possibility, although it would likely be more of a "technical recession" and milder than the events of 2008.

Mansour

Mansour, in her comments on the US economy, said that she clearly sees positive signs, but she added, "I am not going to be a Pollyanna" because significant risks remain. She cited a number of reasons for her optimism, including increased hiring by small businesses, which she described as "the engine of job growth."

Declining new unemployment claims and deleveraging by financial institutions are also positive signs, Mansour pointed out, and prices have dropped to the extent in the housing market that once job growth does gain momentum, it will generate significant demand for housing. Mansour also cited the strong balance sheets of US corporations, noting that they are sitting on some $1.9 trillion in cash.

Torto, before discussing Europe's economy, said that he agrees that fundamentals are improving in the US. "It is not like it was five years ago, but it is improving," he said.

On the other hand, Torto said that a recession is a strong possibility in Europe, in about 2012. Both he and Mansour pointed out that the economic outcomes in both Europe and the US will depend heavily on policy decisions made by leaders here and in the European Union.

"This is the first time that, if we do go into a recession, it will not be the result of fundamentals, it will be a result of policy problems," Mansour said. "Policy mistakes can drive a recession." She said that, if the US economy continues to lose momentum, she expects that the Fed will institute another round of quantitative easing.

Torto said that although the economies of Asia and Latin America are not exempt from economic problems, in general they have coped well. "Most of the other economies have some issues, mainly inflation," he said, and they also will be affected by what happens in Europe. "To the extent that Europe goes into a recession, it will affect the economies of the East and Latin America," he said.

The presentation by Torto and Mansour was one of a host of general and breakout sessions at the CBRE Americas Summit on Monday through Thursday of this week. The sessions covered the gamut of commercial real estate and allied topics, including capital markets analyses and outlooks, presentations on where the industry is headed, views on the impact of new technology on real estate, LEED and sustainability, demographics and their impact on real estate, and discussions of the outlook for specific market segments like office, industrial, retail, multifamily and hotel.

Speakers and panelists throughout the week included CBRE top management like CEO Brett White, Americas president Mike Lafitte and Chris Ludeman, president of Americas brokerage and capital markets, as well as experts from all property sectors and specialties like brokerage, investment sales and capital markets. The summit also featured an address by former president George W. Bush as well as internal CBRE meetings on leadership, innovation and other topics.

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