CHICAGO-At an investment conference here at the Fairmont Hotel Tuesday, panelists disagreed about who can effectively recapitalize the billions of dollars of maturing loans, but did agree that economic fundamentals should improve in the United States by 2013, especially since the US is the best global investment choice. The panelists were speaking during the first full day of the Pension Real Estate Association’s 21st Annual Plan Sponsor Real Estate.
Panelists talking about global macroeconomic trends said they believe that foreign investment markets, including China, Europe and Russia, are entering a cooling down period. In contrast, they said foreign interest will just continue to grow in the United States.
Dennis Lopez, chief investment officer of Paris-based AXA Real Estate, said he remembers that more than two decades ago, Japan was looked at the same way that China is now, as a rapidly growing market. The no-growth era that Japan later went through is now being compared to what the US is going through now.
However, since the rest of the world is cooling down, the US still has the strongest investment markets, Lopez said. Co-panelist Larry Schloss, deputy comptroller for pensions and chief investment officer for New York City Retirement Systems, said that though there’s currently uncertainty, the market will turn back to positive and investment will start up quickly again. Investors have very short-term memories, Schloss said.
The panelists agreed there’s not much that policy makers can do to fix the current re-recession movement. Komal Sri-Kumar, chief global strategist for the Trust Company of the West, said the government should focus instead on job creation and tax code reform. Nancy Lazar, co-founder and vice chairman of ISI, said companies, unfettered by regulations, will fix their own problems.
All four said they believe that by this time next year the US markets will be in somewhat better position, either because of a more positive economy or because of moves by banks to sell off assets to clear out holding, opening up opportunities. True recovery is likely at least three-to-five years off however, they said.
A panel on debt markets told the roughly 400 attendees that because of the massive extension of debt, and the mountain of hundreds of millions of dollars that will be maturing every year, that the US is nowhere near the end of the deleveraging cycle. The question is who is going to recapitalize those commercial real estate assets when they come due, they said.
Until the time comes when the market takes its proverbial lumps with massive loss, they said, there won’t be a meaningful change other than the possibly permanent death of 80%-to-90% loan to value ratios. Ethan Penner, president and founder of CBRE Capital Partners, said there is opportunity for those who want to take risks, that those that can fill a void will get paid in a time when there’s more need for capital and less of it available.
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