LOS ANGELES-“If you are on his team, he would die for you…if you are competing with his team, watch out.” So said George Marcus, co-founder and chairman of Marcus & Millichap Co., of this year RealShare Apartments 2011 Lifetime Achievement Award Winner Keith Guericke of Essex Property Trust Inc. When accepting the award during a networking lunch at the event, that drew more than 1400 attendees, Guericke pointed out that “you don’t get to where you are by yourself…You do it with a team.”
What is important in building a company, according to Guericke? “Pick your partners well. Create a strategy. Modify it as you have successes and failures.” The RealShare Conference Series is produced by ALM's Real Estate Media Group, which also publishes Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com.
In an Industry Leaders Panel following the award presentation, moderator Doug Culkin, president of the National Apartment Association, pointed out that “There are some brilliant opportunities out there that we need to look at,” a point that was echoed through the day-long event.
“Things will be very good over the next 10 years for the industry,” said Robert Aisner, president and CEO of Behringer Harvard Holdings LLC. Aisner pointed out that his hope is that “we have a resolution with the next debt ceiling and that the European banks will get better.” But he says that it will be “a very slow crawl back” pointing out that his guess will be that in two years time, unemployment will go from 9% to 7% .
Al Brooks, president of commercial lending at Chase says that he has a difficult time looking 10 years out, but says that his five year forecast is “bullish” with Chase looking to double its business. “We are getting more normalized again, and with regard to unemployment, the new normal will be higher in the foreseeable future, so it will be a tougher slog.”
Like Aisner, Michael Schall, president and CEO of Essex Property Trust, is bullish on what the future holds. “We are at 40-year lows on the supply side of housing. We see supply at such low levels that probably by now and 2014, there will be some increase in supply, but just back to historically low levels.” He added that the supply/demand relationship is very strong on the coastal markets.
“It will be a tale of two markets out there,” said Walt Smith, CEO of Riverstone Residential Group. Secondary and tertiary markets, he said, will be a tough slog. In core markets though, “we will see a nice run in the short term, but I believe we will have at least one sizable dip.”
When asked about future foreclosures that can be expected, Grace Huebscher, president and CEO of Beech Street Capital, said that “there is still a ways to go on the singlefamily side.”
And although Brooks couldn’t provide an exact number, he said it isn’t abating as quickly as he had hoped. “The secondary and tertiary foreclosures are still having trouble,” Brooks said. “On the positive side, the true coastal markets on the west coast, we aren’t really seeing foreclosures anymore.”
When Culkin asked panelists advice on how to safeguard a similar cycle, Brooks said that the people they bank with are that extremely successful “stick to what they know and prosper.” He added that “As long as you know your market better than anyone else, you will make the right buys.”
Aisner added that “If you buy good assets, and are low leveraged, you can live through a black swan scenario.”
On the development side, Schall says Essex is building its development pipeline. “There are almost no for sale housing being built,” he said. “You will see a little bit more apartment development, however within the context of all housing supply, I think it is still at muted levels, so we think it is a great time to be a developer at this time.” He added that “muted levels of supply should be very good for apartments.”
According to Smith, “Provided that you are building where there is job growth, I think you will do just fine.” And according to Brooks, “In the core markets, we feel really good about development.”
And although most of the day’s forecast seemed rosy, some of the panelists did share a few concerns. “Multifamily is dependent on the GSE’s for financing and they are under attack by congress and their current funding structure could change,” pointed out moderator Culkin. “Liquidity in the market is very spotty without the agencies,” said Huebscher. “There is a thought that it would be a healthy market if they were gone and I don’t think that is the way it would be.”
She continued that “if the country asks itself if it is willing to give up a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, the answer is no… there is no efficient mechanism that is able to be created to get that kind of efficiency.” She added that “When it comes down to try to figure out a replacement, there is really no plausible replacement. You can call them a different name, but I don’t think any of them work.”
Brooks concurred, pointing out that “It is the consistency of that liquidity that is important to the industry and to overall evaluations. I think the next black swan is four to 10 years out again and I think we will be thankful for the GSEs as a fallback.”
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
