“We were pretty encouraged at the beginning of the year,” Jenco says. “We had a large volume of positive absorption at the beginning of the year. But we’ve been losing some of that momentum.”

Some of that gain particularly in submarkets, comes from individual large deals, which can skew the numbers. With the housing market still shaky and employment still high, companies are not engaging in major expansion, he adds. This results in a concern that gains in one market means losses in another as companies consolidate and relocate to take advantage of lower rents.

“When XYZ company takes 100,000 square feet, is it really 100,000 square feet? Or is it a consolidation from 200,000 square feet?” Jenco notes. “We see a game of musical chairs.”

The industrial market has been steadier, largely due to preparations for growth in light of the Panama Canal expansion. Availability was 11.7%, down 30 basis points from the previous quarter. The market posted nearly 2 million square feet of positive net absorption during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to more than 4.8 million square feet absorbed.

“At the same time, we still have to watch consumer spending,” Jenco says. “If we see the consumer retrench even more in the coming year, it will affect the warehouse market.”

Some markets likely will be less affected. The Meadowlands, Exit 10/Edison and Union areas each saw more than 400,000 square feet of positive net absorption. And markets with a large proportion of food warehouses should remain stable – people have to eat.

Even so, a year of ups and downs in both sectors could be ahead. It all comes down to the mighty consumer.

“We were in a holding pattern last year, and even the year before,” Jenco says. “Everyone is kind of shaking their heads again.”