Although there were numerous bad actors during the bubble days of housing in mid decade, not all banks and lenders did bad things. Mainly it was brokers in places like southern California, Vegas, Florida and Phoenix who were pushed to just generate volume and not worry about quality. Getting paid for generating numbers of mortgages instead of quality mortgages led to much of the problems we face today. Young Wall St bankers, who actually convinced themselves that house prices in the US never go down, and who got big bonuses for generating more and bigger securitized pools of garbage, just added the fuel. When that was combined with Barney Frank refusing to rein in Fannie and Freddie, and covering up for the illegal actions of Franklin Raines and his cohorts, and the political push for making subprime loans and increasing home ownership under CRA rules, then disaster was a guaranteed outcome. Despite what the media and various politicians like to rant about, most of those people lost their jobs and lifestyle, and are doing something different today. Raines, of course, got his bonus and went on untouched. What occurred at the banks and Wall St was not criminal for the most part, just stupidity pushed along by reverse incentives against doing things right. In short the whole system was set to fail and Barney Frank was the one most responsible for the debacle.
That is now in the past. Unfortunately the administration and state AG’s think it is just great to go on a populist rampage against the banks and try to punish everyone other than Barney for the misdeeds of the past. The result is they are crushing the banks and the housing market. Bankers are now expecting the lawsuit of the day to show up. Elizabeth Warren set off a new deluge with her demands for a $20 billion fine against all big banks because they used robo signing to try to keep up with the overwhelming volume. The California AG is determined to blow that settlement. Classic California and New York political actions by uninformed lawyers. The lenders also invented MERS to be efficient, but judges at the state level are too dumb to even understand what MERS is. Reality is almost nobody who borrowed too much has been harmed by robo signing in foreclosure, and nobody lost his house due to MERS. They are in default and are not going to pay, so they need to be foreclosed to clear the market. In fact there are people I know who are in foreclosure and are knowingly dragging it out so they can live rent free for three years and just game the system. Of course judges and politicians-who are one and the same at the state level, have no idea how it really works or what the damage is that they are causing. Delaying foreclosures by another year only harms every person who owns a home. The longer this drags out, the more home prices decline and fail to recover. The more lawsuits there are over robo signing, or other supposed mistakes, the more the lawsuits from politicians and the less likely any bank will issue a new mortgage to anyone but the perfect borrower. Now we even have regulators from Washington and Illinois instituting suits claiming that banks need to be making more subprime loans, and that they discriminated by charging higher rates to people with lower credit and higher risk. What a novel concept- charging more for higher risk.
Even modifications are being harmed because almost nobody wants the perceived legal risk of subprime mortgages, even though that risk is removed by those who buy defaulted notes and properly document and reissue modified loans. So the result is many underwater borrowers cannot get a modification that they need to have to get back on track, stay in their home and repair their credit. As a result many blue collar workers are being harmed by the very politicians who claim they are there to protect these people.
The government, led by the Obama administration and the about to be released uncontrolled Elizabeth Warren army of new regulators, is doing grave harm to the housing market and the economic recovery. The people suffering the most are the individual homeowners who they allege they are out to help. I know from my own direct dealing with the White House on home mortgages, that they do not have even the most elementary understanding of how the mortgage business works or how commercial banking really works. They are just a bunch of misinformed politicians out to wage class war on bankers and those of us who have been successful in financial services or real estate.
So long as Obama is in the White House and the Elizabeth Warren army is let loose, housing has little chance of recovery, and therefore jobs will be slow to recover. Why would anyone make a new mortgage loan today if you know these people will be on your butt to claim you charged too much, you should not use MERS, you forgot to dot an i, you did not overstaff so five people could review each loan at huge excess cost, or you refused to give a loan to someone with lousy credit if he was a minority. The lawsuits are sucking the capital out of the major banks just when they need strong capital to withstand Europe and whatever else is coming. The bills for lawyers and consultants to fight the government are in the billions and gets added to the tens of billions of fines and settlements. If the banks had that capital they would be able to make more small business loans, housing would recover and construction jobs and jobs at Home Depot and similar places would grow.
It may be politically hard for bankers to rise up and stage a Rick Santelli moment, but that is what we need to reverse this cascade of damage being caused by the war on the banks. If you own multies, you will get the benefit of all of this and continue to do very well. There is a lot of profit waiting to be made by buying and renovating pre-nineties properties and renting to all those forced out by foreclosure.
Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.
Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.