How NYC is Surviving the Next Cycle

NEW YORK CITY-After weathering the great Lehman collapse of 2008, Manhattan’s top players at Bloomberg Link’s 2011 Commercial Real Estate Conference were generally optimistic about the future of the New York City commercial real estate market despite looming clouds over Wall Street. From financing large-scale projects like One57, to the repositioning of the Empire State Building, the construction of the International Gem Tower and condo conversions on the Upper East Side, New York’s CRE industry is well-off the bottom–and has rebounded quicker than most.

The major reason, said Gary Barnett, president of Extell Development Co., is because New York had no major oversupply post-downturn. “In 2007, there were a bunch of projects that were ready to go and everything was swimming along. But when Lehman went bust, every deal cratered. We didn’t see new cranes in the sky until now,” he explained. “Contrary to the late 80s where we cratered and there were a lot of empty buildings, that wasn’t the case in New York City. There wasn’t a tremendous overhang of supply, so that’s why we came back so strongly. If financing was back for the go-go days, everybody would be back in the business and pretty soon, there would be an oversupply again. It is actually a healthy thing.”