NEW YORK CITY-The single-family home market took another tumble in the third quarter despite bargain-basement mortgage rates and deep discounts on homes. The latest S&P/Case Shiller index shows that home prices declined by 3.9% in Q3, bringing single-family home pricing back to 2003 levels nationally.

David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for S&P Indices, tells GlobeSt.com that these latest figures showcase that renting versus buying has become stronger than ever. “Given the general state of the economy wherever you look, it’s hard to get people to make a long-term financial commitment, and that’s what buying a house is,” he says. “While home prices are down to roughly where they were in about 2002 or 2003 and mortgage rates are probably lower than any living person’s memory, the market conditions to buy a home should be really good. Prices are down, mortgage rates are down, yet, there’s not much activity going on. That suggests to me that people are very concerned, but they still have to live someplace.”

Across the country, 17 of the 20 cities rated by S&P posted negative annual rates, including new lows for cities like Atlanta (-5.9%), Las Vegas (-1.4%) and Phoenix (-0.2%). Only New York, Washington, DC and Portland, OR—three cities with solid job growth and booming renter populations—posted positive monthly returns.

In addition, Blitzer says Southern California has also performed “particularly well” due to the lack of overbuilding and strict environmental regulations on new construction. “It has prevented people from building too many houses, as compared to the Southwest,” he says. “Denver and Dallas never saw prices surge quite as much as some of the others and they also seem to be in slightly better shape.”

And despite its emphasis on the financial sector, New York—which S&P lumps in with Northern New Jersey, Westchester, Connecticut and Long Island—has been “surprisingly resilient,” Blitzer added. “There are increasing amounts of technology-related employment showing up,” he says. “Once you include the Tri-State Area, it is a little more diverse and a little less overly dependent on finance, and that has helped.”

On a national level, Mark Obrinsky, VP of research and chief economist at the Washington, DC-based National Multi Housing Council, tells GlobeSt.com that the poor investment performance of single-family homes has “taken a big bite” out of the demand for homeownership, which has led to a higher—and more sustained—renter population. “In part, a good portion of the bubble-induced home prices were the result of overly optimistic expectations of how well single family homes would do as an investment,” Obrinsky says. “We’ve now pretty much wiped out that part of the market, both people looking to primarily make money on homes as an investment. It also reinforces in people’s minds the notion that even if you do want to become a homeowner at some point, there is no rush. Home prices aren’t going away from you and this is not a decision you need to rush into. You could take your time and continue to rent.”

In the apartment industry, Obrinsky says move-outs to home ownership is much lower than it was five to seven years ago. “People tend to stay renting longer,” he says. “They may move to different apartments, but moving out to buy a house is much lower than it was in the first half of the previous decade.”

He adds that qualifying for a mortgage is harder than it used to be due to the need for a more substantial down payment. “But even for those who have a sufficient down payment, the fact that prices are not only not going up, they look like they are going down again,” Obrinsky says. “It acts as a deterrent.”

To read the full S&P report, click here.

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