A number of lenders were hoping to see an improvement in the market so that they might not have to foreclose, Calkin explains, but “that is not materializing so they are forced to look for a liquidation through the foreclosure process.”

Real estate attorney Brian Kang of Greenberg Glusker goes further in his prediction, noting that the increase in foreclosures could continue through 2014. According to Kang, there are two primary reasons for the increased foreclosures. First, he says, “the government and self imposed foreclosure moratoriums stemming from the robo-signing scandal caused a large backlog of foreclosures that the banks are now aggressively prosecuting.” Second, he adds, “for the past two to three years many borrowers have been able to postpone the foreclosure process by trying to modify their loans, however, due to the continued depressed economy more and more borrowers are unable to successfully modify their loan, resulting in foreclosures.” Under normal circumstances, according to Kang, the foreclosure process will take about 120 days, but because lenders have been trying to work with borrowers to modify their loans, homeowners have been able to postpone the foreclosure process by more than two years, he adds.

For the most part, government programs such as HAMP and HARP have not been as effective as originally hoped, Kang says. “Many borrowers have been unable to take advantages for various reasons including the 125% loan to value ratio requirement--i.e., your loan cannot be more than 125% the current value of the home.”

Kang also expects an increase in mortgage defaults by borrowers with jumbo loans--loans over $417,000 nationally and over $729,750 in Los Angeles--for two reasons. First, he says, “most if not all of the mortgage assistance programs are directed towards helping those with loans under the Jumbo loan limit.” Second, he adds, “more and more jumbo loan borrowers appear to be making the strategic default to walk away from their homes.”

According to RealtyTrac, lenders repossessed a total of 67,624 US properties in October, a 4% increase from the previous month. REO activity increased 40% or more on a month-over-month basis in several states, including Michigan (40%), Oregon (45%), New Jersey (48%), and Indiana (73%), says RealtyTrac data.

The company data also shows that default notices were filed for the first time on a total of 77,733 US properties in October, a 10% increase from September. Default notices increased more than 25% on a month-over-month basis in several states, including Florida (28%), Pennsylvania (50%) and Indiana (61%). But despite the sizable monthly increases, default notices were down on a year-over-year basis in all three of these states.

In terms of foreclosure auctions, approximately 85,321 US property auctions were scheduled in October, up 8% from the previous month, but still down 38% from October 2010, says RealtyTrac data. Scheduled auctions increased more than 35% on a month-over-month basis in several states, including Florida (57%), Minnesota (43%) and Illinois (38%), although scheduled auctions in all three of those states were still down from October 2010.

But whether we are in a recession or not is not the issue, says Voit’s Calkin. “Real estate—residential and commercial—is still in a recessive mode with values declining in most—but not all—areas across the country.”

Beacon Economics’ Christopher Thornberg, founding partner of the Los Angeles-based firm, says it isn’t a lack of credit or the number of foreclosures that is the problem, but a lack of equity left over from the over-borrowing of the last decade. “Americans use equity in their current homes to put down payments on bigger houses and pay the moving costs,” Thornberg says. “This lack of equity will hamper the move-up market for years, in turn reducing the demand for new homes, particularly at the higher end.”

Calkin says it is still all about job growth, security in your home value and individuals and business owners feeling good about the overall political and economic environment both in the US and abroad. “We’re in a global economy and every US household hears about what is going on in China, Italy, Greece and Ireland in an instant.”