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7 Tips for Navigating Distressed Securities

Remember the days when delinquency rates for CMBS were less than 1% and the industry viewed a 5% or even 10% default rate as unfathomable? Well, hold…

By Erika Morphy - Washington, DC Correspondent for GlobeSt.com. | Updated on December 09, 2011

Remember the days when delinquency rates for CMBS were less than 1% and the industry viewed a 5% or even 10% default rate as unfathomable? Well, hold dear those memories, because they are unlikely to cycle back any time soon. Indeed, it is widely expected that delinquencies will go beyond the 10% mark this year. A recently-released report from Delta Associates and Real Capital Analytics finds that, from February 2010 to February 2011, the 12-month delinquent unpaid balance of CMBS rose $14.6 billion, or 31%, to $62.4 billion for a delinquency rate of 8.3% of the $754 billion total unpaid balance.

Potential problem loans, however, make it likely that the delinquency rate will exceed 9% in 2011, according to Realpoint data, with the delinquent unpaid balance reaching as much as $70 billion by December. For distress investors, such statistics naturally mean that there are still opportunities, despite the seemingly desert landscape that is distress investment at the moment.

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