Earlier this year, DAI wrote that the nation's labor markets showed a slow and spotty recovery. At the time, Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles based economist, pointed out that post-recession job growth in the US left much to be desired. Seven months later, amid daily reports of deteriorating consumer confidence, Wall Street chaos and layoffs across the board, commercial real estate hiring has pushed slightly ahead of the national growth rate.
Although the global market gyrations have led some players to be more cautious, "there's been increased activity" overall, says Anthony LoPinto, global sector leader of real estate and managing director of the New York regional office of Korn/Ferry International. "I expect hiring to get stronger over time, but it'll be a slowgrowth situation." LoPinto says that instead of slow and spotty, industry job growth is now slow and steady.
According to Plano, TX-based Sayres Dudley, a founding partner of executive search firm Dudley & Assoc., there is some hiring-by no means a frenzy-from REITs. Brokerage shops are expanding, and mortgage banking is also growing as debt becomes more available, he says.
Dudley points out that uncertainty is the curse of expansion, especially as it relates to hiring. The European debt crisis "creates just one more level of angst," he says, "coupled with their current anxiety about the stock market and the downgrade of long-term debt." That uncertainty, he says, more often than not "will make them pause and possibly even delay hiring."
On the other hand, for the more opportunistic employer, there's an opportunity to attract an exemplary player from another shop where this uncertainty may be clouding the future vision. "Money talks, and doesn't have a limited vocabulary," he says.
The picture is somewhat brighter for LoPinto, a GlobeSt.com columnist. He points out that the increased activity-especially in New York and London-has been relatively steady on the investment side. He cites platform investors, global life insurance companies, private equity firms and investment managers as the most active. Many firms making these bets, he says, are either ramping up their real estate presence significantly, didn't have a presence before or have navigated intact through the worst of times and are taking advantage of today's market.
Overall, the industry still has a long way to go, LoPinto says. "Our business has shrunk, so we are still dealing with a net decline, but there are signs of life and there is activity."
On the brokerage side, Los Angeles based Chris Cooper, CEO of Charles Dunn Co., tells DAI that his firm is growing its service capability and aggressively expanding its entrepreneurial brokerage operations in all product types. "We're in the midst of a trend as companies realize there's a new economy and new dynamic in the real estate industry," he says.
Jones Lang LaSalle, too, sees growth on the tech side. "Future growth prospects are highest in the office markets that are heavily influenced by strong high-tech and energy industry growth," according to a recent report. "Urban areas will benefit from tenant trade-up activity and professional services job growth." Cooper says that, while investment sales have increased, firms have been cautious in hiring new brokers. "Hiring is strategic and slow, but it is increasing incrementally," he says. "Mid-cap deals are getting done in good quantities, and brokers are looking for a better platform and better opportunities for their business." Although a lot of movement is occurring in the brokerage industry as a result of some instability in firms, Cooper says, it doesn't necessarily create new jobs. But, as the deal volume increases, there are new jobs being created to support the brokers-such as analysts, junior broker runners, client coordinators, marketing support and administrative assistants. "Overall, the brokerage industry will see bumpy and uneven growth depending on service lines and market sectors," he says.
Rich Chichester, COO of Irvine, CA-based Faris Lee Investments, observes: "There are opportunities if one is ambitious, creative, innovative and willing to view the market today as different from the past. Within the real estate service sector, the opportunities transcend geography and focus on skills, discipline and accountability. Specialization and value are the strategic attributes."
Compared to other industries, LoPinto says commercial real estate hiring is on the lagging side of the equation, while Dudley says it's most likely on par with others. "The healthcare/life sciences business is active," says LoPinto. "Technology is hot, too, and there's a lot of recruiting in industrial."
Cooper, on the other hand, says that hiring in real estate is somewhat better than typical white collar service sectors such as law, accounting, insurance, or banking, where labor growth has been slow or has declined. In the area of corporate services, he says, "some strategic areas of real estate and investment sales consulting are starting to pick up." But he agrees that "we aren't near the hiring spree you see in the technology, healthcare, social media and government sectors."
In a September 2011 UCLA Anderson Forecast report, senior economist David Shulman says that, recession or not, "the employment situation remains horrible." Job growth, he says, has stalled. "We forecast that the unemployment rate will soon rise to 9.5%," he says. "Thus, even by the end of 2013 we won't be back to the unemployment levels of late 2007." According to Faris Lee's Chichester, there's too much focus on building for size and volume, versus quality and value. "The current hiring trend appears to be that of placing people with strong experience, but the industry is aging and there's a real need for new thinking," he says. "We need more young people to join the industry and bring their fresh talent." Chichester points out that Generations X and Y behave differently than the Baby Boomers, and for the young professional, this is the best time to start a career. "The best times to learn and develop are times of change and uncertainty," he says. "The economy is in a structural change and those who are hoping and waiting for things to return to the good old days will most likely be disappointed."
But both Dudley and LoPinto see a demand for higher-level executives, from senior to executive management. "The seasoned individuals are the most sought after," says LoPinto, "with CEO and CFO being the most prevalent." Dudley, however, agrees that "if a young person can get hired, it's always a good time to start a career in commercial real estate. It's one of the best career paths out there, and there'll always be a demand for well-qualified people." It just depends on whether the individual applicant can get the job. The pool of talent isn't really as deep as some say, Dudley opines. "Many hundreds, perhaps thousands, have left the industry," he says. "Lots of others have been doing contract work and are available."
Those who have been out of work a long time-two-plus years-may be less attractive to employers, warns Dudley, because "they've been out of touch with the markets." But he adds that companies are really looking at individuals and how current they have remained in spite of being unemployed. Employers are asking themselves questions about the mental and emotional state of applicants, including whether they've been through a traumatic event such as divorce or bankruptcy. These are questions, says Dudley, that help companies evaluate those professionals who have been out of work for an extended time. "It's not necessarily fair, but it's reality."
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