NEW YORK CITY-Last year, New York City saw 9.7 million international tourists—a 13% increase over the previous year, according to data from NYC & Co., the city’s tourism arm. The group indicated that many of those came from emerging markets, such as Latin America and Asia. However, some countries mired in the current European debt crisis—Italy and Spain, for instance—also showed positive results.

And at last week’s ICSC conference, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg told attendees that retail spending by international visitors to the city was up 37% for the third quarter of 2011, compared to the same quarter a year previous.

Now, though, some experts are predicting that a weakened Euro could have a negative impact on the city’s retail sector, as the European debt crisis continues unabated.

Glenn Brill, managing director, Real Estate Solutions, at FTI Consulting, says that foreign tourists “are a great source of business, and when the dollar is weak, more so.” Brill and his firm, however, predict that a weakened Euro against the dollar could have the opposite effect.

“We think it’s intuitive in a couple of respects and while this theory may not be applied universally it’s pretty clear,” Brill says. “I don’t think Europe has quite gone into a recession but there has been a retreat. The point that we’re making is twofold—one is we do think that that effect has not come to fruition as of yet. We think it’s only starting.”

By FTI’s calculations, the Euro now buys $1.38 in US dollars, which makes sale items—especially luxury goods available at a markdown—particularly attractive to the European traveler.

Also potentially vulnerable for European retailers looking to enter the New York market, Brill says. “Our view is that a certain amount of foreign retail has been driving the market a little bit—certainly H&M is a big success,” Brill says, adding that the real barrier to entry may be cost of funds. “If they’re borrowing in Europe to finance their expansion in the US, that money is going to pricey, he adds. “It’s not going to be cheap money.”

Faith Hope Consolo, chairman of the Retail Group at Prudential Douglas Elliman, says that she has kept her eye on the debt crisis and its effect on New York retail and that it has yet to have a real impact because “all the products are so much more expensive there than here to begin with.” Her European clients not only continue to do their personal shopping here, with slight adjustments, but they are also looking to expand their businesses as well. “They definitely shop differently,” Consolo says. “They used to buy five of something—now they buy three. But they haven’t stopped coming.”

And according to Consolo, “rents are right back where they were before the recession.” There are fewer bargains to be found, even in Nolita, the Lower East Side and the Bowery.

As for Brill, he thinks that at the least retailers may wait to expand. Though “vanity plays,” as he calls them—luxury retailer and stores that feel the need to be in the market due to prestige, “may continue to expand.”