Buyers Remorse

I have to confess—I don’t do Christmas shopping. When I tell people that I get odd responses—a mix of envy, maybe a touch of pity, and a dose of wonderment. Of course, a chunk of the population doesn’t celebrate Christmas—sure I buy the occasional present when going to a celebrant’s home or for Secret Santa in the office, stuff like that. But generally I avoid most of the frenzy and certainly the stress.

And this year there certainly seems to be plenty of angst in the marketplace that I’m missing out on.

In this make or break time for retailers and many retail real estate owners, the over-drive of Christmas merchandizing hype smacks almost of desperation. The chains couldn’t wait for Black Friday so they opened during Thanksgiving and broadcast the biggest bargains of the season. But even before Mom could serve a turkey sandwich on Black Friday, the news shows and internet were abuzz over how the best sales weren’t really until the internet retailers’ Black Monday. Then carefully placed news stories (by retailer pr firms) appeared about better deals coming a week or two before Christmas and sure enough suddenly December 17 became “Super Saturday” giving retailers two prime Saturdays for more discounts before the big day, including upcoming Christmas Eve extravaganzas.

Already I’ve seen store windows with “Everything” signs as in “Everything in the Store 40% Off”—you never used to see anything like that before Christmas, if ever. Of course, Christmas-New Year’s week will become a return fest when everyone picks through what’s left at further reductions during clearances. Meanwhile, more and more shoppers sit at home or in the office and buy whatever on the web —internet sales at last report are up 15% over last year. It beats finding a parking place at the mall and then getting caught in traffic on the way home.

Now tell me bricks and mortar stores aren’t gnawing their margins to the bone.

As usual, reports coming out after Thanksgiving told us about the Black Friday weekend sales records. Any TV viewer or internet browser saw repeatedly scenes of folks spilling into Wal-Mart and Target to buy a lot of junk their friends and relatives really don’t need in the spirit of the season and at the behest of non-stop advertising designed to get them to spend what they may not have. “Try our Lay Away Plan.” The whole idea is to get people to follow the mob, think they’re missing something that everyone else is taking advantage of before there is nothing left to take advantage of. But despite all the marketing hoopla, last week we heard about other records—record levels of returns before December 25, buyer remorse already setting in. High unemployment and stagnant wages will do that.

That’s not to say that we aren’t being more practical. At a pre-Christmas gift party over the weekend, my friends gave their parents a new vacuum cleaner since their old one just conked out, and there were plenty of sweaters and shirts from Kohls (not Ralph Lauren) in the gift boxes for other family members. But at the same party, the college girl got Tinkerbell emblazoned doormats—just what she always wanted and needs, and her 11-year-old cousin received a toy helicopter, whose rotors and gun station looked like they wouldn’t survive a play date crack up before the New Year. But then who am I to judge, right?

At the party talk eventually got around to pension cuts and the layoffs at work. The egg nog came out and the white wine was poured, and the best part in the end was family-togetherness. “Thank God I don’t have to go to another store,” said one of the aunts.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

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A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.