MIAMI-The CRE Finance Council January Conference kicked off Monday with 1,300 attendees gathering at the Loews Miami Beach Hotel to discuss what 2012 holds in store on the finance front.

Before the conference started, CREFC CEO Stephen Renna told GlobeSt.com that 2012 will offer some advantages, despite the challenges, because “there aren’t any shocks out there about what could happen.” Renna said that the main points of uncertainty center around government debt—both here in the US and abroad.

“As far as people seeing the beginning of 2012—they know what the headwinds are and they’re adapting to them,” Renna said of those working to finance real estate deals. “So with respect to CMBS, for instance, we wound up the year right about $30 billion of issuance and most people are predicting maybe $35 billion to $40 billion. They’re not predicting any huge surge but they’re not seeing right now any factors outside of the sovereign factors that I mention.”

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Also on tap, Renna believes, will be the increased disposition of troubled loans, as banks look to move them off of their balance sheets. He thinks that it’s expected that these troubled loans will be disposed of much faster because bank “balance sheets have been strengthened now so they can start absorbing losses and they’ve identified those loans which they’ve extended over time that aren’t going to turn around.”

Later in the day, following Renna’s opening remarks, the event’s first panel tackled real estate fundamentals. Maximus Advisors senior principal Peter Muoio moderated the discussion, “CRE Fundamentals: Where Are We?” while a panel of insiders delved into the issues involved.

“Retailers are adding jobs,” Muoio said, “but headwinds are still strong.” In fact, as he introduced the discussion, he emphasized the “but” in all of the metrics indicating an improving economy.

“As I looked at each of the slides there was always a ‘but’, Muoio said. “The sense grows that the consumer continues to be buffeted. They want to go out and spend but they don’t have the wherewithal.”

He added that “we have a tale of two recoveries.” For example, there is a robust apartment recovery, but office and retail vacancies are hovering near highs and the CMBS market “has been hijacked by bigger issues.”

Steven Goldberg, director of Real Estate at retailer Bed, Bath & Beyond said that there seems to be some energy and pent up demand from the consumer. But he said that there have also been so many new dynamics in the retail arena.

“The retail arena is changing in that consumers are educated more so by the Internet,” Goldberg said. “Some of the conventional big box retailers who are commodity providers of goods are being outpaced by others where they offer service, where they offer interactive opportunities. On a macro level retail has come back again and will continue to come back but the dynamics have shifted.”

On the office front, Cushman & Wakefield executive managing director Jeff Cushman told the crowd that office tenants will stay the same size or downsize in their real estate needs. “Clearly the trend toward open space continues,” Cushman said. “If people do move it’s hard to imagine that they’ll take on significantly new space.” The exception, he said, may be tech and IT firms. The government, as a tenant, might also have an effect on the market, particularly in Washington, DC Cushman said. “I don’t see how Washington can remain as robust as it’s been.”

Robert Peck, the GSA’s commissioner, Public Building Service, confirmed this and said that “government contracting is down and will be down all over the country.” Asked later about some recent government leases, Peck pointed out that one was a renewal and told GlobeSt.com that even lease renewals were likely to be for a smaller footprint.

“This is the first time in my experience that the budget cuts in Federal agencies are so severe that they have to choose between real estate and people,” Peck said. “Our trend is to try to find out how to do more with less.”

Even as some good news filters through the markets, uncertainty remains on most fronts. The future of CMBS is no exception, according to Richard Parkus, executive director at Morgan Stanley. “Where we are for CMBS obviously depends on where we are in the commercial real estate cycle and where we are in the commercial real estate cycle depends critically on where we are in the economic cycle,” Parkus said. “Unfortunately that is very unclear at the moment.”

Parkus said that he sees the CMBS market returning. “Our view is that commercial real estate fundamentals for core markets continue to improve.” He also noted that the availability of financing is not anticipated to be an issue for 2012. The main issue, he said, would be property performance.

Most comment hearkened back to comments made by Renna to GlobeSt.com before the panel began, speaking of the difference between known and unknown risks. “When there is more certainty,” Renna said, “you can handle risk better.”

Check back for continuing coverage of the CREFC January Conference.