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2012 And Beyond

2012 is filled with balck swans and uncertainty, but the US is likely where you want to be

By Joel Ross | Updated on January 16, 2012

We all know 2012 is a year of maximum uncertainty. To help sort through the fog here are some stats and some thoughts as to where we are and what might be the events of 2012 or not. GDP is likely to end 2012 between 2% and 2.5%. There is nothing on the horizon to suggest a major good news event. However there are numerous black swans that could cause this to be less.  Iran, the removal of Greece from the Euro, a collapse of a French or Italian bank, some really dumb event staged by North Korea trying to get attention.

Foreclosures are likely to increase now that the servicing robo signing hoopla by Washington seems to be more under control. It was never a real problem but it made the administration and Cordray happy to create an issue. There are about 3.5 million homes in foreclosure, down form 4 million, but still a very long way to go. As a result house prices will decline another 3%-5% in 2012 so lot prices will not likely rise much for now. With ownership no longer the goal of many and so many houses coming back to market for rent, then add a lot of multi which will get built over the next several years, and homebuilding and lots will not likely be a good place to be.

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