NEW YORK CITY-With the state unemployment rate holding the line at 8% and new job growth booming in the city’s emerging Midtown South tech sector, investors looking to buy up core assets in Manhattan can expect less debt and healthier deals going into 2012. During the New York Bar Association’s real property law conference on Thursday afternoon, CBRE’s vice chairman Darcy Stacom explained that despite headwinds from the financial services industry, New York itself will remain a stable location to deploy capital -- even with competition from London, Dubai and Tokyo.
“As tough as it's been, it is not all bad,” Stacom said. “[Financial] earnings last year saw a 30% increase from the previous year. Layoffs are rumored and some of them are happening, but there are no large blocks of space.”
On the Manhattan sales front, deal volume is on the uptick. In 2009, Stacom said there was only one transaction over $500 million, and no deal even close to approaching $1 billion. However, in 2011, the average deal size ranged from $500 million and $1 billion, representing 64% of the total sales market.
“We went from a small market back to the large big-deal market,” she said. “The best part is all of these deals that were done were far healthier than anything we’ve done in 2006 or 2007. In ’06 and ’07, everybody got 95% debt. Today they are lucky if they get 50% debt.”
This year, Stacom said there are several $1 billion-plus deals in the pipeline ready to close. She recently represented seller Cariplo Pension Fund on the $252.5 million sale of the HarperCollins Building in Manhattan’s Plaza District to SL Green Realty Corp., the city’s largest publicly-traded office REIT. The property, located at 10 E. 53rd St., traded for approximately $647 per square foot.
And despite concerns about shaky conditions on Wall Street, things are looking even better Downtown. GlobeSt.com recently reported that 30 Broad St. could trade for $142 million within the coming weeks, and the Federal Reserve has signed an agreement to purchase 33 Maiden Lane, according to the New York Observer.
In addition to traditional trasactions, Stacom said recapitalizations are happening faster than ever before. She said the once-lengthy process has gone from a three-month review period to as little as one month. “People bought mezzanine positions out of discount, like 280 Park Ave. for example,” she said. Under that deal, SL Green and Vornado Realty Trust hold a majority stake in the building and are planning a $150 million repositioning and re-tenanting program. The two REIT titans bought the 1.2-million-square-foot property from Broadway Partners and Investcorp.
“You had Vornado and SL Green buying debt back, and in one of the most unlikely purchases ever, those two REITs got together and agreed to operate that building together,” she said. “It is an interesting dynamic.”
Manhattan-wide, prices per square foot average around $1,000 a foot on Park Avenue, $650 to $850 a foot for class A Midtown assets and $250 to $350 a foot for Downtown buildings, Stacom said, noting she is optimistic for the city’s future.
“We’ve got a good economy,” she said. “Am I worried about the globe? Sure, I’d be a fool not to be. But I really do like how we’ve diversified our economy. I like the fact the market has so many different forms of a transactions.”
But she closed offering one piece of advice: “don’t ever take a deal to market without valuing your retail space separate of the office or residential. The retail market trades in terms of $2,000 to $10,000 a foot, so if you don’t break that out of an office building, then you’ve got a lot of money on the table.”
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