ATLANTA-Tuesday morning at the MBA CREF12Conference saw predictions from two of the association’sresearch and economic gurus, including one in which the late springand early summer sees a surge in single family home buyers. Thetwo—chief economist and SVP, Research and Education JayBrinkmann and VP, Commercial/Multifamily ResearchJamie Woodwell—also touched on their overallpredictions for the commercial andmultifamily markets.

During this, the Second General Session, Brinkmann said thatwhen fourth quarter 2011 numbers came in, “a lot of people weresomewhat surprised and disappointed by how low they appeared,” butthat the numbers were “right on top of” their forecast. “We weren’texpecting the growth in fourth quarter that some others wereexpecting.” Behind the slowdown, Brinkmann said, was a largebuildup of inventory.

“We really expect to see that going into 2012 we’re going tohave subpar growth for most of the year, increasing somewhat towardthe end as certain tax provisions have their effect,” he said. “Wedon’t expect consumers to be back.” The unknowns, he said, drivingthe forecast were largely international. He hit on two majorregions that he told the crowd would work their way out toward thelatter part of the spring and early part of the summer: Europe andIran.