So you might charitably say this winter has been a bit of an outlier. It’s really not been winter at all in most of the United States. In New York, we’ve experienced one long March, now feeling more like early April. Crocuses and daffodils already bloom in Central Park and some trees start to green up along their branches at least a month ahead of schedule. The Ground Hog may move his day to just after New Year’s in the future to make his six week prediction come true.
Believe in global warming. It’s not just this winter. Over the past 25 years, peak fall foliage has moved from the end of September to just around Columbus Day up in the Adirondack High Peaks. Rose bushes out on Long Island used to flower in early June, now buds open well before Memorial Day. Likewise you used to not even think about going into the ocean before mid June, now more often than not you can comfortably swim before the first summer holiday weekend.
On the real estate front, the ski resort business becomes more problematic—next year might bring another snow dump like 2011 and Europe certainly got a cold blast earlier this month, but snows become less predictable. For hotel or home owners along the coasts, you have got to be uncomfortable about the potential for rising sea levels, heightened beach erosion, and stronger storm damage. If you’re not at least a bit anxious, you have your head in the surfside sand. The middle of the country isn’t immune either from bigger floods and more tornados. Meanwhile, the Southwest and Southern California run low on water from the recent extended drought.
And here we go again with gasoline prices headed back to $4 a gallon with predictions of $5 or more by summer, and the economic recovery hanging in the balance. High oil prices and economic contraction have gone hand in hand over the past generation—recessions in 1974, 1979, 1991, 2001, and 2008 have all had an oil component involved.
Sure, there is a small minority of scientists who dispute man-made global warming, but the overwhelming majority makes the case for fossil fuel consumption as a root cause. After 40 years of yo-yoing prices we remain wedded to Middle East oil sources, which keep us perennially embroiled in costly conflicts. And do offshore oil rigs and Canadian tar sands provide a viable energy alternative? Well maybe with larger stores in hand, we wouldn’t need to be as concerned about whether Israel bombs Iran, but they are more of the same carbon emitting energy problem, which has made for such lovely weather so far this year.
Solar and wind have some potential. We probably need more nuclear—the country is building two new nuclear plants for the first time in 30 years. Natural gas offers promise, but let’s not kid ourselves about the pollution involved in the fracking process—we need to be very careful. Under any circumstances, it’s finally time to scale back our reliance on oil and coal—the idea of “clean coal” electric power plants is such a total crock of pr word nonsense. And how about a heavy dose of conservation—we can still live and do business very comfortably in using less energy.
Hey, I don’t mind walking around in shirt sleeves in Manhattan in February. But between the radical change in seasons underway and another round of our economy held hostage by oil speculators—it’s time to get serious about a sustainable national energy policy. And drill, drill, drill is just not the answer.
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Jonathan D. Miller
A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.
