Just as banks and special servicers are starting to make headway on resolving the existing commercial real estate loans that have gone into default, 2012 promises to bring a new wave of defaults as a new crop of loans comes to maturity. Since CRE loans are typically written for terms of five, seven or 10 years, this means that 2012 will be the year when five-year loans written in 2007—the height of the bubble—will come due. This has implications for banks and other lenders, for borrowers, and especially for investors hoping to take advantage of opportunities presented by the new wave.

For lenders, the question—as always—will be whether to refinance, foreclose, extend or sell the loans. For borrowers, decisions will be based in large part upon what lenders are willing to do. And for investors, the trick will be to sort through it all in search of bargains.

Exactly how much will be coming due in maturing loans and how much of that will be attractive to investors is hard to pinpoint, according to Thomas Fink, senior vice president and managing director at Trepp LLC in New York City. Fink says that, except for CMBS, where actual figures are available, any number as to the size of the maturing debt is an estimate. He estimates that the overall figure will be about $1 trillion over the next three years, which includes CMBS, bank CRE lending, GSE's and insurance companies.

Whether the lenders will be willing or able to refinance these loans is questionable because, as attorney Tom Muller of Manatt, Phelps & Phillips in Los Angeles points out, “Not only were those loans underwritten based on inflated bubble values, but many were also based on spectacularly optimistic underwriting standards popular at the time, which assumed steady upward economic trends.” Nowadays, underwriting standards are substantially more conservative, notes Muller, who is co-chair of the real estate and land use practice group at Manatt Phelps. He says that many of the 2007 loans coming due—to the extent they haven’t already defaulted—will not come close to meeting current underwriting standards.

One option for lenders is to extend the loans, which may be an appealing choice for some lenders, according to Jeff Dritely, managing partner of Los Angeles-based Kearny Real Estate. Dritely explains that, until the banks have new and better opportunities to place their money, “With the economy growing very slowly and new loan demand low, kicking the can down the road and continuing to collect the cash flow from the property is not such a bad outcome, given the limited new opportunities.”

However, banks are under pressure from regulators to clear troubled loans from their books, so the huge volume of maturities this year means that many of these loans will go into foreclosure or will be offered as note sales—two of the areas where many of the opportunities lie for investors. As Muller points out, the opportunities for investors range from joining the existing borrower as a partner to taking over the property via note sales and foreclosures. An investor “can be the white knight bringing in new money to an existing venture,” he says. “They can buy the project and work out a short pay with the lender, eliminating the existing owners; or they can try to buy the loan at a discount, and plan to foreclose when the borrower fails to refinance.”

According to Fink, maturing loan opportunities are strongest in the retail and office property types, with multifamily and hotels rounding out the top property types. In terms of balance, almost 50% of the loans have a balance of $10 million or less, so there is plenty of opportunity for the small investor, he adds.

Peter Fitzgerald, COO and principal of the RADCO Cos. in Atlanta, sees opportunity in small-balance community bank portfolios, “where the incentive is to get rid of assets and for properties that are older and require significant management effort to improve performance.” Although these type of deals are still hard to find, he says, “they do exist and banks are transacting.”

In addition, Fitzgerald says that although note purchases have not been his company’s primary acquisition focus, RADCO has had success with purchasing apartment notes. “We like note purchases because they offer alternative ways to meet investment objectives, either through foreclosure or the borrower performs at some level,” he says. In one case, Fitzgerald says, “We bought a note well and within two months sold it back to the borrower at a discount. We made money, and the borrower felt they got a deal as their debt balance was reduced.”

In terms of dollars, most of the opportunities for investment will be in bank loans. CMBS represents a relatively small portion of the loans coming due, with approximately $79 billion maturing in the remainder of 2012 and about $50 billion maturing in 2013, according to Fink. For those who do venture into the world of CMBS distress, Fink advises that, if a loan is already in default, the special servicer will look to maximize the return to the CMBS investors. As a result, he says, the special servicer is driven by hard-money decisions, so the investor will need to have serious cash available to fund the workout strategy.

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.