After years of back-and-forth and shoulds, woulds and coulds, some on Capitol Hill finally took a step toward GSE reformation that extends beyond mere talk. The Federal Housing Finance Agency last week unveiled a strategic plan that would help prepare the market for their eventual absence.
The plan has three main components: build a new infrastructure for the secondary mortgage market; gradually contract the GSEs’ dominant presence in the market while simplifying and shrinking their operations; and maintain foreclosure prevention activities and credit availability for new and refinanced mortgages.
Currently, Fannie and Freddie back about three-quarters of all new mortgages, and other government entities guarantee the balance. And with CMBS fizzling out last year, the securitization market pretty much belongs to Fannie and Freddie as well. Given that the government is basically the backbone of the housing finance system today, as well as the secondary mortgage market, it’s understandable that any change to the GSEs would have a tremendous impact on the industry.
The main concern has always been that changes to the GSEs should not be detrimental to their multifamily operations, which have been thriving. The good news is that the FHFA report acknowledged as much, pointing out that Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily arms are doing very well thanks to favorable demographics and improving fundamentals. This is a major win for the apartment industry, which for the past several years has been trying to educate political decision makers about the difference between the single- and multi-housing activities of the mortgage giants.
The report also noted that while the GSEs dominate the for-sale housing market, they don’t hold the bulk of multifamily loans. As such, FHFA suggested different approaches to reforming the two businesses. Specifically, an analysis would be done of Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily operations to see if they could operate without government backing and instead, through private capital investments. That’s a lofty goal, since at this point—or any time in the near future—there are serious doubts that the private sector has the wherewithal to back the mortgage giants.
At this juncture, it’s at least a good sign that Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily businesses aren’t lumped into their overall operations—score one for the apartment market. But until a definitive move is made to find a solution, we can’t claim victory. Ultimately, it’s in Congress’ hands, and being an election year, it’s doubtful that anything will be done in the near future. Plus, any reforms will require further investment, and with the GSEs already eating up over $180 billion in taxpayer dollars since going into conservatorship in September 2008, it’s unlikely that the public will allow more funds to be sent their way without opposition.
But that doesn’t mean those in the industry are waiting idly for things to happen at on the Hill. In conversations I had at the recent RealShare Apartments East conference in DC, several people related that there’s a lot of behind-the-scenes activity occurring among borrowers to prepare for financing alternatives should anything drastic happen with the GSEs, such as trying to find alternative sources of capital—both debt and equity. While many weren’t forthcoming—at least, not on the record—about specific details, it was clear that this kind of preparation is widespread.
And that, dear readers, is a great thing. After all, as Benjamin Franklin said, “By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
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