While you were all watching Greece and the European banks, Iran was ramping up as the real issue which will most affect the world, and US economy. Now we are beginning to see the real impact in the form of higher oil prices. That is just the start. The Iranians have made it very clear they have no intention to reduce their nuclear ambitions, and they know if they get a nuclear weapon, then the entire global balance changes. Israel knows that far better than Obama and is not going to wait for Obama to realize the world, and especially Israel is faced with an existential threat that is not going to be mitigated by talking and an “open hand” policy. We are now counting down in months, not years to when something major has to happen.

Oil prices are unlikely to come back down for quite awhile. The rebuff of the IAEA has confirmed Iran has no intention to cooperate, and every intention to race ahead before the US is ready to see reality. With oil going up and up, the economic recovery is in jeopardy, and industrial strength is more and more in question. Higher gas prices will harm the hospitality industry and it will mean higher transport costs for food and other products. That crimps consumer spending on things other than food and gasoline and that reduces hiring.

When Obama sends the chairman of the joint chiefs on TV to say an attack on Iran by Israel will be destabilizing, that Iranian leaders are rational actors, and other things which signal to Iran that we will do nothing militarily, then that just encourages them to even more aggressive behavior by showing weakness. It was exactly the opposite of what should have been postured. When we ignore the attempted assignation of the Saudi ambassador in a Washington restaurant, that just encourages the potential for another terror threat inside the US or elsewhere. When we sit by and say we need to talk Assad into leaving instead of taking decisive action to prevent the ongoing massacre, that just encourages the Iranians to further repress their own people and crush any revolution. To me, Homs is the modern day equivalent of the Warsaw Ghetto, and the world reaction is not a lot different.

Lech Walesa put it starkly very recently: “The United States was always the last resort and hope for all other nations. There was the hope, whenever something was going wrong, one could count on the United States. Today we have lost that hope.” That tragic loss of hope by the rest of the world only encourages the despots and terrorists like the mullahs in Iran.

What this will mean for US real estate and investing is that unless things change quickly, this is going to be a very long summer of higher and higher oil prices, more strain on the economic recovery, higher costs for food and fuel, so higher inflation pressures. We could possibly see higher inflation and less economic growth all at the same time. It is hard to know how this will play out, but not well most likely. If this situation continues to deteriorate, as I predict it will, then corporate profits will be squeezed, and the nascent recovery in the debt markets, and the investment markets for real estate which I have seen happening over the past several weeks, could be shut off.

I believe Israel will give sanctions only a few more months to work in the hope Assad falls and the Iranian people rise up and start a real revolution which maybe Obama will even support this time. If that does not happen, then it is my belief that by August, Israel will attack, and they will consider using tactical nukes to destroy the underground facilities. They may have no choice if the US does not simultaneously attack. Israel needs to strike a total knockout blow the first day, since it cannot sustain a constant attack mode over several weeks, and it needs to assure only a limited capacity for Iran to be able to retaliate.

This summer is the key to where the world goes for the next 20 years. Pay attention to the Iranian situation. Your future depends on it.

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Joel Ross

Joel Ross began his career in Wall St as an investment banker in 1965, handling corporate advisory matters for a variety of clients. During the seventies he was CEO of North American operations for a UK based conglomerate, and sat on the parent company board. In 1981, he began his own firm handling leveraged buyouts, investment banking and real estate financing. In 1984 Ross began providing investment banking services and arranging financing for real estate transactions with his own firm, Ross Properties, Inc. In 1993 Ross and a partner, Lexington Mortgage, created the first Wall St hotel CMBS program in conjunction with Nomura. They went on to develop a similar CMBS program for another major Wall St investment bank and for five leading hotel companies. Lexington, in partnership with Mr. Ross established a hotel mortgage bank table funded by an investment bank, and making all CMBS hotel loans on their behalf. In 1999 he formed Citadel Realty Advisors as a successor to Ross Properties Corp., focusing on real estate investment banking in the US, UK and Paris. He has closed over $3.0 billion of financings for office, hotel, retail, land and multifamily projects. Ross is also a founder of Market Street Investors, a brownfield land development company, and has been involved in the acquisition of notes on defaulted loans and various REO assets in conjunction with several major investors. Ross was an adjunct professor in the graduate program at the NYU Hotel School. He is a member of Urban Land Institute and was a member of the leadership of his ULI council. In 1999, he conceived and co-authored with PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Hotel Mortgage Performance Report, a major study of hotel mortgage default rates.