CAIRO-To say that Egyptian commercial real estate is struggling is somewhat of an understatement. Ayman Sami, head of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Egypt office, talked with GlobeSt.com’s Robert Carr about the company’s latest Cairo Real Estate Overview, and whether any positives can be seen a year after the country’s riotous leadership change.
The city has about 7.5 million square feet of class A stock, but a growing vacancy rate currently at 35% and growing and rental decline of 20% since 2010, according to the overview. There’s about 8.5 million square feet of retail, and a number of projects that could double the stock by 2014, but rents and occupancy have declined by up to 30%.
There are some notable new projects, such as Cairo Festival City and Dandy Mall, but delays have been rampant. Sami tells GlobeSt.com that the city, the largest populated in Africa, will always be a draw for investors, but challenges need to be addressed.
GlobeSt.com: What do you really think about the stability of Egypt?
Sami: Stability of the country is not bad considering that we are trying to get out of a 30-year regime. It is all about fundamentals, and Egypt has very good fundamentals with a very large middle class and more than 800,000 marriages per year continuing to drive the real estate market growth. We will continue to see opportunities in various sectors of the market.
GlobeSt.com: Is Cairo a place that is really going to attract investment or corporation interest today?
Sami: These days the majority of investments and corporations are still in a "wait and see mode", however, a small minority of UAE and Qatari investors/ developers have decided to push ahead with their plans, in addition to some FMCG and Petrochemichal occupiers. They are the ones that will have stocked up for sale now and are slowly moving into a leading market position. My view is that with such a large (more than 80 million) and young population (43% below the age of 20), the first to market will be the ones that will gain the most.
GlobeSt.com: What are the specific challenges?
Sami: Challenges had to do with a lack of infrastructure support, the closure of many factories, demonstrations, labor strikes, disputes over land ownership or their values, reduced demand due to people's fear of losing their jobs, etc. This was due to the fact that the country was going through a major transformation.
GlobeSt.com: Are fundamentals such as jobs getting better for the city?
Sami: It is still too early to judge the jobs or fundamentals improvement in the market, however, the country has pulled out from negative real GDP growth during part of 2011 to a positive 1.9% and we are expecting real GDP growth to maintain similar levels this year or show a slight improvement.
GlobeSt.com: How would you rate the city’s current office market?
Sami: It would be difficult to assess the total size of the office market as the majority of offices are in residential buildings converted into offices and there is no real CBD. The 35% is across Grade A offices which represents the minority of office space across the City, thus we are hoping that with new government regulations in place preventing office occupiers from occupying residential buildings, the need for higher quality space and getting away from congested neighborhoods, should act as a catalyst to occupiers filling in the space. In the short term we are still with the view that the gap will widen, however, we shall continue to monitor the movement closely for any new trends.
GlobeSt.com: And for retail, the same questions? Is it just the malls that are going to do well in the upper-class areas?
Sami: For retail there is a shift toward more value brands and higher end brands are limiting their expansion. We can still see hypermarkets pushing ahead with their expansion and some fashion brands that are priced more moderately. It is not only malls that will do well, there is also the tendency for certain brands to turn to street shops and some are seriously looking into expansion outside of the two main governorates of Cairo and Alexandria.
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