ATHENS-Locally based L.P. Ellinas Real Estate Consultants & Valuers has joined the TCN Worldwide organization, expanding the group’s reach into Greece, Romania and Cyprus. GlobeSt.com’s Robert Carr was able to interview general manager Evi Chaviara about her thoughts of the country’s bailout troubles, the local real estate benefits and staying in the Eurozone.
She says the inclusion into the zone was likely one of the catalysts for his country’s current crisis. “Ever since, Greece has experienced consumption-led growth, which was fueled by the ability of the country to borrow at preferential rates under the shield of the common currency,” Chaviara says. “Growth was financed through leverage, no structural changes took place and as a result the system was leaking from multiple fronts.”
She said the main problems are the inefficient and out-proportioned public sector and a complex tax system, coupled with the inability of public government to tackle tax evasion. Inefficiencies have led to a competitiveness gap of 40-60% when compared to the advanced Eurozone countries, she says.
The austerity measures, which will include thousands of public jobs cut, have caused spiral depression effects, but had to be done for the benefit of future generations, Chaviara says.
“The austerity measures need to be coupled with development initiatives by Troika, in order to ignite the engine of the Greek economy towards primary surpluses and GDP growth, potentially from 2013-2014 onwards,” she says.
Real estate was one of the sectors that was driving the growth during the last decade in Greece. Construction was booming, margins for contractors were extraordinary, debt led demand was there and, as a result, market participants increased significantly. Unfortunately due to the eventual oversupply and the radical demise of demand due to the crisis, the boom had led to a bust. During the past two years, only a limited number of transactions are taking place due the evident lack of liquidity, the difficulties of local banks to inject liquidity in the form of mortgages and a lagging price correction caused by contractors who can afford not sacrificing margins due to the strong cash generation during the boom years.
However, Chaviara says the country can come back, in part because of its tourism draw. “As the Germans once said “Greece is the Florida of Europe”, she says. “It is considered to be the premium plot of Europe. It is the only EU country with so many islands, more than five hundred, and most of them are virgin.”
In the years to come, she says Greece will offer a lot of real estate opportunities not only to locals but also to European and American Investors, as soon as the new tax structure and real estate regulations will be in place so as to bring growth.
“If Greece manages to implement the structural reforms and growth led initiatives are adopted, then it will rise from its ashes, stronger, healthier and a valuable member of the European family,” Chaviara says. “Greece’s geopolitical position, in the cross road of Europe, Africa and Asia, its undeniably competitive tourism sector and its dominance in the global maritime shipping sector highlight the potential that a reformed Greece could offer to Europe and the currency zone.”
The alternative move to stop default, a potential euro exit could be disastrous. The competitiveness gap would have to narrow through a step devaluation of the new currency while in parity terms high annual inflation rates would counterbalance the relationship of the country with the rest of the world. “As Greece is by far a net importer of goods, the implications of the above recipe for the buying power of Greeks would be devastating,” Chaviara says.
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