LOS ANGELES-Most of the Sunbelt geographies have already hit their cyclical lows and are likely to surpass national growth rates during the next six to 12 months, according to an office report issued by Jones Lang LaSalle. Currently, nearly all Sunbelt markets posted substantial upticks in office occupancy, experienced declines in vacancy and moved closer to seeing office rents and concession levels hit bottom. But in 2011, occupancy gains in these beaten down housing economies totaled nearly 6 million square feet and provided evidence that, as we move forward in 2012, most of these geographies will start to outpace the national recovery, the report says. This resurgence is due to strengthening employment, migration and housing-market shifts, with absorption rates in the 1.5% to 2% range across most of the Sunbelt geographies.
“Orange County and San Diego are among the Sunbelt markets which have surpassed the national average in total non-farm, total private, professional and business-services job growth, driving positive net office absorption,” Peter Belisle, southwest market director for JLL, tells GlobeSt.com. “Los Angeles and Las Vegas have registered below-average rates of growth, but both geographies have seen growth in nearly all employment sectors turn into positive territory at the end of 2011 and gain traction in recent months, a sign that these geographies are finally joining the recovery.”
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While nearly all areas of the US were negatively impacted by the recession, some of the hardest hit were the Sunbelt markets of Ft. Lauderdale, Jacksonville, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Orange County, Orlando, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa and West Palm Beach.
“The Sunbelt markets witnessed substantial drops in their overall economies in 2007-2009, with relatively no recovery in 2010-2011,” says John Sikaitis, senior vice president of research at JLL. However, despite ongoing negative perceptions, most of these markets are undergoing a resurgence and poised for dramatic changes in 2012 and beyond.”
Also, since their pre-recession peaks, housing markets within the Sunbelt have experienced drastic reductions in price and sale volume, far greater than any other region of the US, according to the report. In most cases, these housing markets have yet to begin recovery. However, as a result of positive office demand growth, employment and migration indicators, there is a strong chance that most of these geographies are hitting their market low and will soon begin to recover, if this has not begun already. Since employment and other indicators point to recovery while housing prices are only beginning to stabilize or in some cases are still decreasing, continued economic, employment and office-sector growth should lead to gradual, but steady, gains in the housing sector moving forward.
In addition, the report indicates that markets such as Jacksonville, Miami, Orange County, San Diego, Tampa and West Palm Beach have surpassed the national average in total non-farm PBS job growth. Floridian markets have dominated the jobs recovery of late: Jacksonville’s 5.9% annual increase in PBS jobs is among the largest in the nation, while Tampa’s 2.5-plus% annual growth in all measures shows signs of revival and diversification. Miami also surpasses both national expectations, increasing at around 1.9% overall annually.
In terms of domestic migration, the majority of Sunbelt cities display a common pattern: a net loss of residents in 2007, shifting to an inflow of residents in 2008 or 2009 and then stable, yet increasing, population growth in 2010 and through 2011. Nearly 75% of the Sunbelt markets are once again showing significant positive migration, with Florida reporting the largest increase of at least 20%. As the hub to Latin America, Miami and Ft. Lauderdale are leading the charge due to strong immigration trends from Latin America that drive population, business and economic growth.
Consistent gains in employment across multiple sectors, with emphasis on diversifying economies, is vital to the continued improvement of most Sunbelt geographies in 2012. Since job performance has remained either constant or accelerating in these metropolitan areas—not only among themselves, but also outpacing national results—it is probably that most Sunbelt markets will recover faster than the US as a whole in 2012 and 2013, the report indicates. These markets should see rebounds in their housing markets as well, driving even further office demand from the housing sectors (homebuilding, mortgage companies, etc.).
“Whereas migratory patterns drove the Sunbelt to unprecedented growth in the pre-recession years, those patterns will now be reflective of recent strong office recovery in these markets, being more economically sustainable and diverse than before with the potential to surpass the rest of the country,” says Sikaitis. “Even with these positive shifts, most of these geographies are two to three years away from returning to pre-2007 levels; so, while we are upbeat about the recovery for these markets, we remain realistic and guarded in the fact that we are not yet back to 2006 territory and likely will not be until the 2014-2015 timeframe.”
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