NEW YORK CITY-In examining the Bloomberg administration’s $68.7 million preliminary budget for 2013 and long-range financial plan for 2016, an analysis released by the New York City Independent Budget Office shows that the five boroughs will demonstrate stronger gains in employment than in income, resulting in a mixed picture for commercial real estate. According to the report, IBO projects that the city will gain 435,000 jobs over the next five years, despite continued weakness in Wall Street revenues, salaries and tax collections for the city.

Kenneth J. McCarthy, senior economist and senior managing director of research at Cushman & Wakefield, tells GlobeSt.com that while job growth will depend on the pace of the overall recovery, office vacancy rates will continue to trend lower and rents will trend higher in Manhattan. As of year-end 2011, C&W reported that Manhattan’s overall office vacancy was 9.1%, down from 10.5% in 2010 – a sign of positive growth.

“New York City right now has one of the lowest vacancy rates in the country,” McCarthy says. “To see healthy job growth in an environment with already low vacancy rates, new construction is starting come into the pipeline, but not to be delivered for a few years is pretty positive for the market. Overall these numbers suggest that the market should continue to do well.”

According to the IBO, three-quarters of the job gains are projected for education, healthcare, professional services, leisure and hospitality, social assistance and wholesale and retail trade. While these industries typically have modest wage levels, conversely, the report forecasts that the high-paying securities sector is expected to add only one out of 37 new jobs over calendar years 2012 through 2016.

Facing headwinds from the global markets, tax revenues are expected to grow, but not at the double-digit gains that occurred before the downturn, IBO says. With a subdued Wall Street, the report predicts that tax revenues will rise 4.3% to $41.4 billion this year and by an additional 5.5% to $43.6 billion in 2013.

Despite the softening, McCarthy says financial services is “still a vitally important industry in New York” that represents a third of all the office space users in the city, but a diversification of the economy is also helping to stabilize the market.

“If you look over the past 15 or 20 years, the growth in the city has been in professional services, in education and health, in leisure and hospitality,” he says. “During this recovery, the biggest sector for growth has been the professional services. It does speak to the fact that New York is not just a financial town any more. It is always going to be an important financial capital and it is always going to be important to New York, but we’ve diversified into many other industries, including technology.”

With Cornell and Technion University’s planned high-tech campus on Roosevelt Island, Google’s arrival at 111 Eighth Ave. and new incubator space sprouting up across the city, Mark Roberts, global head of research at RREEF Real Estate, tells GlobeSt.com that tech leasing will benefit New York in the long run.

“You also can’t overlook tourism and you can’t overlook foreign investment, so there are a lot of different sources of stability for New York,” he says. “Having said that, it is going to swing with the equity markets and what happens there. The regulations with the Volcker Rule are shifting those dynamics, to some degree. But in terms of global cities, New York is very affordable when you look at markets like London, Hong Kong and Tokyo.”

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