American households seem to be just getting back on their feet after a long rough period. Personal and disposable income grew by 0.2% each. But that’s still not at the pace of spending, and it’s half the rate expected by most economists. Instead of going into banks, that money is going into retailers’ cash registers. Indeed, the US personal saving rate declined from 4.3% of disposable income in January to 3.7% in February, the lowest level since August 2009.

Accounting for inflation, income actually fell.

Retailers would like to believe that the spending pace will continue as we get into the really warmer months. But it’s just as likely the trend will flatline or even reverse—after all, the mild winter gave people a reason to buy spring clothes and outdoor equipment earlier than they normally would have. It’s entirely plausible that sales may fall off in the spring.

It’s also plausible that the pace of job growth could taper off. As great as it was over a three-month period, only 156 jobs were added between January and February 2012, and the unemployment rate was unchanged. That’s causing some concern that the March numbers could show that the run is tapping out.

And then there’s gas prices, which are rapidly rising. In my neck of the woods, a gallon of regular gas is going for $3.99 today. Two months ago, it was 40 cents cheaper. The story’s the same across the country. AAA reports the national average at around $3.92. That means it’s topping $4 in most high-cost-of-living markets. According to Deloitte LLP, every penny increase in gas prices amounts to a collective cost to consumers of $3.8 million daily. That’s a lot of money.

So I suppose that at this point, it’s just a guessing game. It all depends on which direction the economy goes. My bet is that we won’t see anything close to a spike in spending in the near future. As good of a mood we may be in, most households are still smarting from the kick delivered by the recession—it’s a sting that won’t go away anytime soon.