NEW YORK CITY-The downgrade of American sovereign debt, the Eurozone crisis and other woes on Wall Street all caused commercial real estate to slow in the second half of 2011 – but it was not derailed. According to brokerage Cushman & Wakefield in their March/April “Economic Pulse: The impacts of economic conditions on commercial real estate markets around the world,” growth in the Americas is expected to rebound in 2012, and real GDP is forecast to grow at a 2.6% rate.
While slow, the rate change is a “significant improvement” over the 1.7% in GDP growth reported in 2011. And by the end of the year, C&W says real GDP is expected to be clipping at a 4% annual rate, compared with 2.8% at the end of 2011.
“Underlying fundamentals are pointing to a brighter future,” says Ken McCarthy, senior economist and senior managing director of research at C&W, in the report.
According to C&W, US consumer spending has grown at less than half of its historic pace, as illustrated by the chart above. The sluggish consumer demand has been caused by a number of factors, including slow employment and income growth, weak housing activity and rising energy prices. At the same time, C&W says, it has created a large amount of pent-up demand that will drive demand throughout the year. |
As consumer demand rises, exports across the four major regions are expected to boost economic growth, data shows (see chart above). In particular, Brazil is also seeing strong government spending and private demand because it is hosting the World Cup and the Olympics in the next four years. |
Based on the demand for consumer goods, the result will be stronger demand for retail space, the rising use of manufacturing facilities and a continuing increase in the use of warehouse and distribution space, according to C&W. In turn, industrial and office will be faced with two factors: rising demand and limited supply. Chart #3 shows that a total of 9.6 mullion square feet of office space was completed in the 41 CBDs and suburban markets tracked by the brokerage, representing a 15-year low for new construction and only 0.3% of inventory. Even so, improvements Canada, Mexico and Brazil are expected, and leasing fundamentals are forecast to improve and vacancy rates are expected to fall. |
The full report can be viewed by visiting C&W’s website here.
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