You saw the stories last week about the new $1 billion company, every entrepreneur’s dream. Facebook purchased Instagram, a photo app developer, for that heady price tag. Leasing brokers to your battle stations, here’s a group that may need a lot more office space in its future.

Oops, there is only one little fly in the ointment here. Instagram, the new tech world flush-with-cash powerhouse, has only 13 employees. That’s right 13 employees, enough to fill a corner of a floor in some San Jose tech park building. These guys came up with some application that can make I-phone pictures look real neat, and get $1 billion, while old-school companies with plenty of workers who once needed plenty of office space, wonder what their future holds.

While Facebook absorbs Instagram, here are just a few examples of lagging tenant dinosaurs:

Sony, such a favorite in the play station era and the solid-state electronics boom before that, laid off 10,000 employees last week with maybe more to come. Some pundits even question the survival of this once all powerful electronics giant. Okay so that’s mostly Tokyo’s problem.

Eastman Kodak, one of America’s most innovative corporations in bygone times, shrinks away in bankruptcy court as two Instagram founders pocket hundreds of millions each for mimicking Kodak’s photo processing looks.

All those newspapers and magazines, big space users, continue to lose their grips on shrinking markets in the wake of internet and I-phone competition. Instagram has a bigger capitalization than the New York Times Company.

A neighbor who is a law partner at a high profile firm worries about how long it will survive in the new world order of fewer deals and squeezed fees. Have you noticed how attorneys continue to reduce their space needs? Yeah I know you have.

And the big banks and other financial companies shave more jobs… and will be using less space.

No problem though… if you’re a broker Instagram may not be the answer, but what about its purchaser Facebook, the next big IPO prospect. Well even with the addition of Instagram’s now mega rich 13, Facebook only has somewhere in the neighborhood of 2,000 employees. And then there’s the market favorite Google. Google actually has 30,000 plus on staff worldwide in 70 offices or about three times as many folks as Sony laid off last week. I’m sure the Googlians operate in some inspiring open space arrangements with hoteling options that limit the company’s space per capita needs, but 30,000 beats 2,013.

Still, Google’s employee count is rather modest compared to the employee rosters of nation’s three biggest banking institutions, which as mentioned are all in recent and continuing cost cutting mode. Citibank, Bank of America, and JP Morgan each have approximately 200,000 employees, most of whom occupy some form of commercial space. And if we are looking at technology—old school IBM has about 400,000 employees worldwide. In contrast, Apple has only about 46,000 full time staffers (the company’s stock price may be out of sight, but it’s not necessarily an employer/office space user juggernaut), and as Steve Jobs proudly pointed out the company does most of its manufacturing overseas, using less expensive subcontractors. Do we really think any of the current high flyers will expand their work forces exponentially and fill up office buildings here in the U.S.A?

I know we’re pinning all our hopes on small businesses and creative start-ups for spurring new economic demand, but if we look at Google, Facebook and next-wave Instagrams, the future success stories cannot be expected to ramp up office space use. These information intermediaries literally operate in the clouds and help eliminate the need for more commercial space. They provide portals and avenues of information, they help speed up contacts, they allow us to share data, and they let advertisers pinpoint potential customers. But none of these companies has or will require a ton of employees to fill up vacancies in our office markets. Do any of them need regional or branch offices in every town? Do any of them really need mega downtown office headquarters? No and no.

And then the Facebook purchase raises another concerning question. Are these information intermediaries just the latest bubble? How many apps do we really need and how much advertising can Google command when the underpinnings of the old economy on which so many people still depend are being undone by all this technology innovation? AOL, the media wunderkind of only a decade ago, sells its patents to stay afloat, while Yahoo already appears to be pushed aside. I guess we call this creative destruction.

If you’re a leasing broker or a commercial real estate owner, you might be concerned.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jonathan D. Miller

A marketing communication strategist who turned to real estate analysis, Jonathan D. Miller is a foremost interpreter of 21st citistate futures – cities and suburbs alike – seen through the lens of lifestyles and market realities. For more than 20 years (1992-2013), Miller authored Emerging Trends in Real Estate, the leading commercial real estate industry outlook report, published annually by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute (ULI). He has lectures frequently on trends in real estate, including the future of America's major 24-hour urban centers and sprawling suburbs. He also has been author of ULI’s annual forecasts on infrastructure and its What’s Next? series of forecasts. On a weekly basis, he writes the Trendczar blog for GlobeStreet.com, the real estate news website. Outside his published forecasting work, Miller is a prominent communications/institutional investor-marketing strategist and partner in Miller Ryan LLC, helping corporate clients develop and execute branding and communications programs. He led the re-branding of GMAC Commercial Mortgage to Capmark Financial Group Inc. and he was part of the management team that helped build Equitable Real Estate Investment Management, Inc. (subsequently Lend Lease Real Estate Investments, Inc.) into the leading real estate advisor to pension funds and other real institutional investors. He joined the Equitable Life Assurance Society of the U.S. in 1981, moving to Equitable Real Estate in 1984 as head of Corporate/Marketing Communications. In the 1980's he managed relations for several of the country's most prominent real estate developments including New York's Trump Tower and the Equitable Center. Earlier in his career, Miller was a reporter for Gannett Newspapers. He is a member of the Citistates Group and a board member of NYC Outward Bound Schools and the Center for Employment Opportunities.