NEW YORK CITY-Samuel Zell, chairman of Chicago-based Equity Group Investments, had some choice words for the commercial real estate industry at NYU Schack Institute of Real Estate’s 17th Annual “Doing Deals in Volatile Markets” conference on Thursday afternoon. “In terms of scale and in terms of velocity, our industry is extraordinarily constipated,” he said, noting that escalating interest rates and heavy debt is burdening the market from moving forward.
“It is really simple,” he elaborated. “We extended and pretended our way five years forward. When you pretend and extend and nothing happens, you’re up the creek. As far as I’m concerned, I think it is going to take another three or four years for us to finally address the overleveraged scenario. My guess is, what will precipitate it will be rising interest rates. Right now, there is an awful lot of debt out there that’s floating over LIBOR. It’s allowing deals that wouldn’t able to be current, able to be current. The minute interest rates go up, the game changes dramatically.”
On Equity’s potential acquisition of a piece of apartment giant Archstone, Zell quipped, “maybe it is an opportunity,” adding, “obviously you’re not going to get much out of me.” Previously, GlobeSt.com reported in March that Lehman Brothers filed an amendment to block the rest of the sale of Archstone – a 26.5% share – to Equity Residential. (And Zell isn't done with Archstone. See today's Chicago Story.)
However, if the deal goes through, Equity stated in late February that it stands to gain an $80 million break-off fee from Archstone if Lehman uses its right of first refusal to purchase the banks’ last shares.
Zell, who remained mostly mum on the topic, offered one comment: “It is an extraordinarily attractive portfolio of apartments. Obviously, Equity Residential has an interest. We have been involved in a process of sorts. I guess the other solution would be if someone gave me some K-Y. But let’s stick with the process.”
Zell, also the co-founder and chairman of Equity International, a private investment firm focused on real estate companies outside the US, has been active in bringing Equity International’s companies on the public markets. They are: Gafisa, a Brazil-based homebuilder; Xinyuan, a regional homebuilder in China; and Homex, a homebuilder in Mexico. A fourth, BR Malls, one of Brazil’s largest retail property owner and operators, is listed under the name Bovespa.
Previously, Zell served as chairman for Equity Office Properties Trust, which was sold in February 2007 to private equity giant the Blackstone Group for $39 billion, marking one of the largest private equity transactions of all time.
Much of the discussion at the national REIT conference, which attracted hundreds of industry leaders to the Pierre Hotel in Midtown Manhattan, focused on the state of mergers and acquisitions in the wake of consolidation and globalization, and whether REITs should diversify outside their specific property types.
With a firm focus on multifamily and residential assets, Zell urged the industry to stick with what they know instead of expanding their footprint into product “they know nothing” about. “Bigger just for the sake of bigness is obviously not the answer,” he said. “But bigger for the sake of maintaining and creating liquidity, I think, is critical. Bigger is better if you could figure out how to take advantage and execute your scale.”
He added, “If you are liquid, then price discovery is real. If you are not liquid or semi-not liquid, then there’s no way to really know whether the price discovery is real or not.”
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