Transwestern is partnering with us through the month of May during our coverage of the ICSC RECon show. Nick Hernandez, managing director of the firm's Retail Services Group recently spoke with GlobeSt.com about how the lack of new development in retail is hindering the expansion plans of chains that want to push more into hot markets. He also talked about what to expect from RECon this year and the kinds of stores he sees expanding. Be sure to check out Transwestern this year at booth C132F.
GlobeSt.com: What are you expecting from RECon this year?
Hernandez: I definitely think the attendance will be up over last year, not significantly, but it will continue to rise as it did last year from the year before. The mood continues to be more positive, especially for the part of the country that we’re in. In Texas, we’re really feeling good about what’s going on. We’ve got a lot of activity in the retail sector here. It will be more positive with a brighter outlook ahead.
GlobeSt.com: Are there new topics of discussion that you think people will be focusing on?
Hernandez: The big question that a lot of people are asking, and one of the challenges we’re having here, is that with no new development “A” space is hard to come by. The question continues to be when where there be new development and what does that time frame look like? What does development look like from this point forward. There are a lot of questions, like what a power center looks like in the future. It looks like the little development that we are seeing is infill, and because the prices are higher, it becomes mixed use in order to make the numbers work. The questions are: When where there be new development? When will the capital markets be there to support new development, and what does that development look like going forward?
GlobeSt.com: Do you have a personal viewpoint on that?
Hernandez: I don’t believe we will see any greenfield development for a long while. As far out as we have built, especially in Houston, you’re not going to see another 300,000 or 400,000-square-foot power center get built any time soon. We got so far out on the edges the last go round, and it seems that retailers aren’t willing to open stores that are mediocre and let them grow as population grows around them. They are looking back inside the city and are no so strict about staying in a box of a certain square footage with a certain amount of parking. Now they’re willing to go smaller or vertical, when we hadn’t traditionally seen that in the market of Houston. Now that kind of thing is being discussed. There will be more development in the city and it will be more mixed-use in nature with not as much of it.
GlobeSt.com: Are retailers finding the space they’re looking for in this environment?
Hernandez: I think it’s a real challenge for retailers right now in the better markets. In Houston we were building 10 to 15 million square feet a year. Last year we built 1.5 million square feet. Houston is a really bright spot in the country, retailers want to come back into the market and expand, and opportunities are few. We’re seeing a lot of upward rent pressure in the better shopping centers. We’re seeing people be very aggressive. I’m seeing key money change hands in Houston for the first time in 20 years. There are some non-traditional things happening here because of market conditions.
GlobeSt.com: Following the Best Buy news, do you see more big chains with store closures?
Hernandez: We’re going to see a lot of retailers trying to downsize their boxes. I don’t see a lot of mass closures. I see people trying to be more efficient with online sales, therefore downsizing their boxes. There could be opportunity that we are not seeing today with the downsizing of some of these big-box retailers. Even with the Best Buys that aren’t closing, they will cut 10,000 to 15,000 square feet out of them and sublease to someone else. That is a trend we will see continue, but I really don’t see anybody that I perceive to be in big trouble.
GlobeSt.com: Any chains or categories that you are excited about?
Hernandez: The restaurant sector is extremely strong. There is a lot of creativity coming out of the restaurant sector now. We’re seeing many chains expanding. Also, the relationship between bricks and mortar stores and their Web presence has gotten a lot more interesting. Retailers have learned how to make them both work together. People are spending time on the Web, but they are still shopping at the stores. The Web is driving people to the stores.
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