LAS VEGAS-Attendees at ICSC ReCon 2012, research reports that came out day of, and panels throughout the event, all say that growth for the retail sector is on the horizon. At the event, which drew approximately 31,000 attendees, GlobeSt.com ran into Sandie Smith, SVP of the retail group at Newport Beach, CA-based Voit Real Estate Services, who further detailed that point, noting that she sees a very gradual increase in retail activity, especially in areas like within California’s Inland Empire.

“Most expansions are by the discount chains, but some major retailers are securing sites for 2014 and beyond, in anticipation of revised residential growth,” Smith tells GlobeSt.com. “There are still vacancies to fill in areas where, simply, too much was built, and this will continue for the next couple of years, but we do expect to see some planning and pre-leasing of centers in outlying areas that are poised for conservative growth.”

According to Smith, the key word these days is “conservative.” She points out that “The days of speculative retail development are far behind us.”

Other brokers GlobeSt.com has run into at the event have noticed that San Bernardino County, within the Inland Empire that Smith referred to, is a good choice for investment. “It’s the relative affordability of the area when compared to other locations,” notes Mary Jane Olhasso, economic development agency administrator of San Bernardino County.

For example, Apple recently doubled to 8,600 square feet at Victoria Gardens, Last Call by Neiman Marcus is one of many new stores opening at Ontario Mills, and Macy’s is locating to Mall of Victor Valley. Orlando Acevedo, economic development manager for the Town of Apple Valley, is also seeing expansions with Target and Walmart—which both plan to bring their neighborhood grocery concepts into the area.

Later in the day, GlobeSt.com visited the booth of Los Angeles-based Watt Properties, one of the larger landlords of retail and commercial real estate on the west coast, to see what is on their horizon. In late 2011, Watt Properties made the decision to retain multiple third-party management firms like Charles Dunn and RiverRock to manage their retail portfolio. Additionally, the firm has been focused on the redevelopment and repositioning of several of their retail center. The firm’s investment division also recently launched a fund in order to acquire properties, the firm’s president Nadine Watt, tells GlobeSt.com.

GlobeSt.com also visited Jones Lang LaSalle’s booth, and spoke with Peter Belisle II, a market director in the southwest region. According to JLL, the overall US retail real estate market recovery remains modest in the first quarter with sales transactions markedly improving, while the leasing market trudges on.

The Chicago-based firm’s spring retail forecast, released here Monday, revealed that “Improving economic fundamentals continue to drive a modest recovery. However, significant risks remain, with the most critical being the European crisis and uncertainty about fiscal policy,” according to Greg Maloney, president and CEO of retail. “While retailers are faring better than we've seen in the past two years, we witnessed a greater number of underperforming store closings this year. In addition, there continues to be a gradual absorption of available space, but rental rates have still not bottomed out nor are they expected to do so for several quarters.”

According to Margaret Caldwell, managing director of capital markets at JLL, “Retail real estate sales recorded a fantastic quarter with significant retail property sales totaling $12.5-billion, which represented an 87% increase over Q1 2011. Interestingly, portfolio transactions accounted for more than half of the first quarter's volume, totaling $6.6 billion,” she said.

According to the firm’s forecast, vacancy fell 20 basis points year over year, closing Q1 2012 at 6.9%. Net absorption was moderate compared to the previous quarter, totaling just over 12.3 million square feet, but consistent with the trend over the past year. “Deliveries were relatively lower as well, coming in at 7.2 million square feet,” says the report. “Vacancy rates are approximately 50 basis points below their peak but still 60 basis points higher than their 10-year average, so it is still a tenant's market and should continue to be through 2013.”

Performance is critical as both retailers and landlords need to maximize ROI for the remainder of the year, explained Lew Kornberg, managing director of retail tenant solutions at JLL, in the report. “However, employment levels will remain the leading indicator of what we can expect to see next year in terms of growth in the retail sector.”

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Natalie Dolce

Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.