(Save the date: RealShare Apartments comes to the Westin Bonaventure, Los Angeles, October 24.)
LOS ANGELES-Investing in a global real estate marketplace can be tricky in the best of conditions, but throw an iffy economy into the mix and the question marks multiply. Getting the opinions and strategies of seasoned global investors is a smart move, which is what Lewis Feldman, partner and Los Angeles chair of Goodwin Procter LLP, did during the panel he recently moderated, “The Changing Winds in the Real Estate Market,” at the Milken Global Conference here.
Feldman led a panel consisting of Jonathan Goldstein, deputy chief executive of Heron International; William McMorrow, chairman and CEO of Kennedy Wilson; David Simon, chairman and CEO of Simon Property Group Inc.; Barry Sternlicht, chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group; and Sam Zell, chairman of Equity Group Investors to explore shifting trends in both the global and US real estate arenas.
One point Feldman told GlobeSt.com after the conference: “There’s plenty of money, but the expectations are a bit lower.” Another overriding message from the panel: Don’t go into an unfamiliar market alone—have a partner based in the market whom you can trust. “You’re better off with a strong partner and a weak project than a strong project and a weak partner,” said Zell. Other noteworthy points made:
- Go where you have a competitive advantage. “We were in China several years ago, but we don’t go into China anymore because our capital is no different from anybody else, so we lose our competitive advantage,” said Zell. Colombia, Peru and Chile are better bets because they signed an accord last year that allows for all three stock exchanges to be pulled together. “They’re creating a funnel with which to bring capital to the market,” Zell added.
- Asian customers love an international brand. Particularly in Japan, outlet centers in Asia have been a great investment for Simon, which has seen a 15% ROI in that market and is on its ninth center there.
- Real estate timeframes in India and China are longer than in the US, said Sternlicht, plus corruption in India in particular is a huge problem without a partner in the market. “Our favorite is Brazil, but the only caveat is the funnel is not that big, and the market can’t absorb it all at once, plus Brazil is expensive so that’s a challenge in investing.”
- Consider countries where there’s a banking problem, as Kennedy Wilson did with Ireland, having bought the Bank of Ireland’s real estate management division last year, as GlobeSt.com recently reported. “We closed on a $2.2 billion loan portfolio from the Bank of Ireland that was the same quality as US at a 20% discount,” said McMorrow. “We’ve already resolved almost one-third of the loans in this portfolio.”
- Look to London. “London remains the most popular destination for capital globally,” said Goldstein. “It’s virtually five times that of Manhattan. The real opportunity in London has been the residential space, which we should have done ourselves.”
- Problems in Europe and the UK include weak leadership. However, McMorrow said Ireland has a real industry with a positive balance of payments. Amgen is spending $200 million to expand its Ireland facility, and Google and Facebook are moving in as well.
- “Liquidity north of Milan is actually not bad—they’re selling assets left and right, and we got in at a discount,” said Simon. “We hope we can add value to it.”
- In Spain, there’s no liquidity in the marketplace, so investors are relying on strong balance sheets and a good amount of equity to get through the city, which doesn’t work for everyone, Goldstein pointed out. “These countries are overleveraged, but these situations will work through the system.”
- In the US market, the big question is where financing rates are going to be in three years. “It creates a difficult investing challenge for us because we want to lock in long-term debt on long-term assets and take advantage of today’s cost of funds,” said Sternlicht. “You may have the same rent projections, but your guess on where interest rates are and where cap rates may be five years from now when you’re selling will determine whether or not you’re going to win or lose and have an acceptable return.”
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