NEW YORK CITY—At the recent NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference, of course there had to be a panel addressing the economy at some point. Fortunately for those present, it took place after a banquet-style lunch in the main ballroom. And as attendees scraped up the last dregs of their chocolate mousse (perhaps served to sweeten the panelists words?) many could sit back and digest while – fortunately – hearing that the U.S. economic outlook wasn’t as dire as to be expected . There might still be a few more sleepless nights on the cards until the fate of the nation is sealed (or at least decided) in the election this coming November though.

Jason DeSenna Trennert, managing partner and chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners, said that this election would likely be “the most important of our lifetime” – and not just because we all need to catch up on some rest afterwards. Moderator Ron Insana, CNBC contributor, fele his words were a little too strong; that this comment accompanied every election. Depending on one’s personal political outlook, the post-election landscape will be better or worse, but one thing seemed to be certain: the US economy has shifted from one of consumption only (evidenced by the empty chocolate mousse glasses) to one of production, at least according to Steve Blitz, director, chief economist at ITG Investment research. He said “the markets are in for a rough time,” as the US further makes the switch from a “sugar high to a lower, protein-based economy.”

While Americans bounce around on and enjoy the residual effects of too many sweets, issues such as immigration reform and developments (or lack thereof) during the lame duck period are also noteworthy. Trennert was pretty sure that this time period won’t solve all problems. At the moment, he indicated, we’re hopped up on our deserts in a Charlie Sheen-like fashion. “There’s really no consequences to our actions,” Trennert said, adding this mentality is “not something we can rely on indefinitely.” So as the shift towards production in this economy occurs, it also seems that the US will start taking responsibility for its economic decisions.

Some of the factors associated with, hopefully, changing the collective mindset include the ageing population, the European system’s demise and the shortage of “risk free” debt, according to Blitz. He felt that the age issue will be one in particular that is going to change domestic demand. Trennart on the other hand feels that the corporate sector is the strongest in the US and that it will help prove that everyone can bounce back. However, the consensus seemed to be that no big decisions will be made until the November election. So until then, it looks like we should all slurp up our sugary treats and stock up on Ambien. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM Digital Member, you’ll receive:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.