(Save the date: RealShare Apartments comes to the Westin Bonaventure, Los Angeles, October 24.)
LOS ANGELES-“While there is some data giving rise to optimism, there is no real indication that the housing market is on the cusp of a recovery.” So says senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg in a forecast presentation that was held Wednesday morning at UCLA to review the Anderson School’s June 2012 Economic Outlook. For California, the housing verdict is that slow and steady gains are anticipated throughout 2012.
In the report, senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg looks closely at California’s housing market, specifically residential construction, which “first led the decline in employment and economic activity going into the recession and has been at the rear dragging down potential growth during the recovery.” In an essay titled, “California Housing Markets: Data, Mirages, and Recovery”, Nickelsburg explains that California’s unemployment rate rose faster than the nation’s due to 350,000 lost construction jobs. And his analysis? “California real estate markets are either still in the trough or still declining toward it.”
According to Nickelsburg, “While there is some data giving rise to optimism, there is no real indication that the housing market is on the cusp of a recovery.” However, he says, there is data that leads him to expect the State’s housing market to grow more rapidly than the nation’s in 2013 and 2014.
“We expect a modest growth in housing starts for the balance of the year at approximately one quarter of the US rate,” says Nickelsburg. “This will be predominantly multifamily housing. In 2013, we forecast a 40% jump in permits, slightly above the US rate and a dramatic rise to 130,000 permits in 2014, double the US rate.”
The current forecast is for continued slow steady gains in employment through 2012, with growth expected to rise 1.9%, 1.8% and 2.5% in 2012, 2013 and 2014 respectively. Payrolls will grow more slowly at 1.6%, 1.8% and 2.4% for the three forecast years.
The unemployment rate, according to the report, will linger around 10.6% through 2012 and average 9.7% in 2013. The unemployment rate is expected to drop to 8.3% in 2014.
As GlobeSt.com recently reported, Beacon Economics says that the EDD’s latest numbers indicate that California’s labor market experienced a slight pullback in April, with 4,200 fewer nonfarm jobs than in March (on a seasonally adjusted basis). However, the locally based firm pointed out that it is important to note that the March numbers were revised upward by 4,000 positions, indicating a very small net loss of jobs. The firm continued to point out that “California's labor markets are clearly still moving forward.”
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
