NEW YORK CITY-As hungry developers move to the Far West Side and Downtown to construct glassy, state-of-the-art class A towers, soon, they may be coming back to build Manhattan’s core business district: the Grand Central submarket. After the New York City Department of Planning unveiled plans to rezone parts of Madison and Lexington Avenues to allow taller skyscrapers in Midtown East last week, commercial real estate sources tell GlobeSt.com that the proposal will allow for developers to build bigger—and better—buildings in close proximity to existing corporations, institutions and landmarks. But questions about whether the city’s aging infrastructure and transportation network can support it remain to be seen.

Under the city’s proposal, properties near Grand Central between Madison and Lexington Avenues would be entitled to build as tall as 900 feet, and properties on the west side of Madison and east side of Lexington between East 39th and 49th streets would be allowed to be as high as 700 feet, a Bloomberg report shows. The rezoning – which is being pushed by the Bloomberg administration to keep Manhattan competitive on a global scale against world economic powers like Tokyo, London and China – would encourage replacement of old office building stock, especially near the station, which is surrounded by the likes of art deco and prewar staples like the Chrysler Building and 230 Park Ave.

But as office stock continues to age and little to no new construction happening, the Midtown market is at a risk of becoming stagnant. “We are accustomed to the fact that most of this 50-year-old building stock simply can’t be demolished, says Michael T. Cohen, president of Colliers International’s Tri-State executive committee. “If you look at all the re-skinning that’s been done or all the new construction overlaid on old construction, and there’s a long list, this is how the marketplace has coped with the reverse arbitrage that would arise if somebody tore down an existing building. It just doesn’t make any sense. In our most desirable Midtown core, we should be able to create new product. We are out of sites, we can’t tear down what exists, we’re stymied. So where do we build? We built at the Hudson Yards, we build on Eighth Avenue, we build on the Trade Centers. But companies want to be on Sixth, Park and Madison. This is a historic inevitability.”

Cohen says the city must figure out a way to encourage a new generation of development because the current strategy of rehabilitating stock will not be an option forever. “These were not built to last 1,000 years,” he says. “The city needs it, the businesses that operate in the city need it and I believe that whether or not will be popular, it is, at least an attempt, to grapple with the fact that in our Midtown core, the development process has pretty much stagnated.”

At the same time, the proposal still has a significant way to go. The plan – which needs to undergo the city’s uniform land use review procedure and an environmental analysis – can take between five or six years for all necessary and regulatory approvals.

Mitch Korbey, partner and head of Herrick, Feinstein LLP’s land use practice, tells GlobeSt.com that given the size of some of the buildings, demolition and rebuilding could difficult and may not be viable. “However, a number of these buildings were built in the 30s or 40s and in order to respond to the marketplace now and the marketplace in the future are going to be modernized and rehabilitated,” he says. “And given existing zoning which might constrain them in terms of their size, there’s not a lot of incentive to do that. What this rezoning does is give us a boost toward making these zones more economically viable and allowing them to increase in size. Therefore, it makes it more viable to improve the buildings and bring them to today’s marketplace in a way that makes them viable as class A office buildings.”

Korbey says there may be some instances where demolition becomes appropriate, especially with some of the mid-sized to smaller buildings. “With a zoning change allowing increased density, I think on a case-by-case basis, you’d have to look at it and figure out in light of newfound density, it does make sense to demolish and start over instead of making significant rehabilitation and additions to the building,” he says.

A big part of the proposal also depends on how hungry tenants are for new space, and how much if anything they’d be willing to pay as a premium on rents. According to mid-year data from Cushman & Wakefield, the overall vacancy rate in Midtown is 9.8%, the same as 2011, and asking rents have increased to $66.44 per square foot, a 4.9% jump. At the same time, renewal activity totaled 6.8 million square feet of activity, which is 1.3 million square feet less than all of the renewal activity recorded in 2011—a sign that tenants are more likely to stay put than move.

Tara Stacom, a vice chairman at Cushman & Wakefield who represents many of the city’s premier properties, including One World Trade Center, says the city is in need of “quality new construction” to keep the best tenants in Manhattan, and Midtown East is lacking it.

“At Grand Central, the city is starved for new construction,” Stacom says. “The tenants want it to attract and retain talent. They like open collaborative spaces, and these new buildings are much more efficient for tenants who are trying to cut costs everywhere. You can squeeze space standards much tighter because they are typically column-free. All of these benefits that a new building has is what is attracting tenants to the market today, and the more that these developers could be involved in new quality construction which the city is depleted on, they know that these buildings will absolutely rent.”

While there are costs involved to take a building down, re-tenant it and build a new one, Stacom says the value over time will be greater than pouring money into an older structure. “You really need to create new quality construction, which creates a much higher rent,” she says, which is prices around 30 to 40% higher than older stock.

However, legitimate questions about whether the infrastructure can handle the commutation pattern of the additional workforce into what we refer to as the Grand Central area is coming into play. According to statistics from the MTA, annual ridership on Metro-North Railroad, which passes through Grand Central, totals 82,037,786 riders, in addition to five subway lines in the area.

While the environmental impact statement and public hearings are yet to come, Korbey says the city should be poised to handle more density based on its existing infrastructure and capacity to handle a high volume of people. “We have to provide for the growth of Manhattan, the growth of the business district and overall the growth of the city. Although we are at our population peak right now, there are some areas of the city that aren’t,” he says, adding that: “You can’t use zoning just to react; zoning has to anticipate and plan for growth. And that’s a very important part of what the planning department is doing here.”

Howard Zipser, shareholder, Akerman Senterfitt, tells GlobeSt.com that the initial proposal has the potential to create a “significant opportunity for development,” but other outside factors – like market conditions – will determine if, and when, construction will happen.

“People think that zoning enables development, and that’s only partially true because what it does do is eliminate or streamline some of the process toward the approval of a proposed building, but it doesn’t relate to financing, interest rates, office demand and all of those factors have to coalesce with a zoning change or with a zone special permit which enables new development,” he says. “It is not simple, but it is certainly a first step. But just because the city fathers want to increase density, it doesn’t mean that development will automatically follow.”

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