(Save the date: RealShare New York comes to the Grand Hyatt, New York, NY, October 9.)
NEW YORK CITY-Following several consecutive months of decline, home prices are beginning to tick up once again. According to the latest S&P Case-Shiller indices released today, average home prices increased by 2.2% in May over April for both the 10- and 20- city composites, a sign that the active spring buying months followed the historic trend of higher pricing and increased sales activity.
But even as the single-family market stabilizes and mortgage rates remain at record lows, uncertainty remains going into the second half of the year. “We have observed two consecutive months of increasing home prices and overall improvements in monthly and annual returns; however, we need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall,” says David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, in the report.
Case-Shiller, which measures the three-month moving average of home prices and is reported on a two-month lag, shows that all 20 major metropolitan cities ranked by S&P posted positive returns in May, and 17 of those cities saw those rates of change increase compared to April.
Both the 10- and 20- city composites recorded annual rates of decline of 1.0% and 0.7% compared to May 2011. While still negative, Blizer says these annual changes are “the best” in at least 18 months.
By city (as illustrated above), Phoenix – one of the hardest hit areas during the housing collapse – posted the best annual return, with average home prices up 11.5% from May 2011. Other cities, like Chicago, fared the best in terms of monthly returns, with a 4.5% increase in home prices as compared to April.
Forecasting the month to come, Blitzer says June data for existing home sales, new home sales, housing starts and mortgage default rates “were a bit mixed,” but all are better than their year-ago levels. “The housing market seems to stabilizing,” he says, “but we are definitely on a wait-and-see-mode for the next few months.”
The latest indices follow a report issued by Goldman Sachs last Monday that predicted a rebound in the single-family home sales and construction market. In the study, GS analysts Joshua Pollard and Anto Savarirajan wrote that housing has a “long list of positives,” including renewed home price appreciation, a decline of shadow supply and a lower risk of another price shock – as long as affordability remains at “attractive levels” and mortgage lending doesn’t tighten.
In addition, private equity giant the Blackstone Group (BX) recently gave housing its own vote of support, committing up to $125 million with Red Bank, NJ-based homebuilder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV) in a land-bank agreement for a portfolio of development parcels for new homes.
Michael Grupe, executive vice president of research and investor outreach at NAREIT, told GlobeSt.com earlier today that the single-family market is "very close" to the bottom, and the sector could emerge as the new "darling" of the industry for new investment. “We're aware of a number of reports that have surfaced in recent months about investment organizations seeking to invest a significant amount of capital into the single-family housing market in part to benefit from the significant decline in values that have taken place over five, six years," he said.
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