NEW YORK CITY-The New York City economy, while outpacing the rest of the country, is posting a curious paradox for economists this year. Though the five boroughs are showing continuous job growth, commercial property sales and office leasing were flat in the second quarter, a new study from Eastern Consolidatedshows.
According to the report, the city added 19,400 jobs in the second quarter after gaining 43,100 jobs in Q1. The chart above shows that many of the jobs added in the first half are employment services and technology-related, but tourism, restaurants, health, education and retail are driving the most activity.
“It is the office space industries that are somewhat on the holding pattern,” says Barbara Byrne Denham, chief economist at Eastern Consolidated, who tells GlobeSt.com that the financial services industry could weaken toward the second half of the year and as the Presidential election approaches. “There were the Dodd-Frank regulations, which caused a shift: they hired a lot more compliance officers and lawyers and fewer traders. There has been moderate job growth in financial services, and I think it will stay moderate to flat.”
In terms of commercial real estate activity, Manhattan commercial property sales volume held steady at $6.1 billion, up slightly from the first quarter volume of $5.9 billion but 40% below the volume of the second quarter of 2011 when 16 large office transactions closed for more than $100 million, the report states. In Q2 2012, only 11 office transactions of this size traded.
There is, however, one bright spot. Property volume in the retail condominium market more than tripled to $780 million from $222 million in the first quarter, mainly due to Westfield’s acquisition of 365,000 square feet of retail at the World Trade Center. But overall Denham says high activity and job growth in the retail and tourism sectors is driving building sales.
“There’s definitely a strong demand for retail condos,” she says. “The retail property class is one of the strongest right now, mostly because of the tourism and the increase in wealth consumption in Manhattan.”
To download the full report from Eastern, click here.
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