When it comes to recovery, most folks will tell you that it all comes down to one thing: Jobs. And many sectors are counting on job growth among young adults, in particular. That’s because, theoretically, the path upon college graduation should go like this: get a job, move out of mom and dad’s house into your own apartment and spend your disposable income on a car, electronics and other mini luxuries one can indulge in before having to pay a mortgage and childcare expenses.
Now let’s take a look at reality. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for Americans age 20 and over was 7.6% in July. But for 20- to 24-year-olds, the rate was 13.5%. Bringing the age group up a notch, the unemployment rate for those age 25 and over was 6.9%, but 8.2% of those between 25 and 34 years of age were jobless.
Let’s leave aside the weak job market and lack of hiring altogether and revisit the above concept. Even if the majority of twenty-somethings manage to secure a job after obtaining their college degree, it’s not a given that they will move into their own apartments and help to further the economy by spending.
Why? Many young adults are saddled with thousands of dollars in student loans. The issue is so large and pervasive that most economists refer to it as the next major financial crisis after the housing/mortgage debacle.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, as of the end of the first quarter, borrowers under the age of 30 owe a total of $292 billion in student loans. Individually, the average graduate owes a record $20,835—more than double the amount it was in 2005. Overall student debt, meanwhile, grew by almost 150% during the same period, hitting $902 billion in March.
This is due to a number of factors. For one, shrinking endowments have led many institutes of higher education to decrease the amount of scholarships they’re offering. Plus, the economic downturn has driven more young people to get degrees—both undergraduate and masters—and fears over the economy, plummeting housing values and the inability to cash out one’s home have parents saving for retirement instead of their children’s college educations.
Sallie Mae reported that 35% of students received scholarships this year, versus 45% in 2011. Consequently, the number of students that took out federal loans rose to 34% in 2012 from 30% in 2011 and 25% in two years earlier. It also found, said the Financial Times, that the number of households with annual incomes above $100,000 applying for financial aid has increased to 72 percent this year from 59 percent in 2008, according to a recent survey commissioned by the student loan provider Sallie Mae. This shift tracks with the decline in home values.
Given all of this, student loan debt is indeed a major setback for today’s twenty-somethings. And that average debt load is likely higher for students in more metropolitan areas. And I’m not even going to mention the credit card debt that many students have racked up on top of school debt.
For a ground-level take on the problem, I give you my younger brother as an example. He graduated high school in 2007 and immediately went off to college. He spent one year at a private university before transferring to a state school to obtain his undergraduate degree. He graduated in May 2011, at the age of 22, with $65,000 in debt.
Even though he secured a decent-paying job last year with a very successful company (I won’t name it here, but I can say it starts with a “g” and ends with “oogle”), he cannot afford to move out of our parents’ house. His monthly student loan payments make it prohibitive to pay the high rents in New York. Most of his friends are in the same boat, if not worse off.
So when you hear people say that once there’s job growth, echo boomers will help jumpstart the market, I wouldn’t bet my money on it.
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