The New Jersey apartment market today bears some resemblance to the Texas oil market, circa 1980: it’s all go-go-go. Developers are racing to produce the product—which in this case is multifamily rentals, most of it new construction. Capital is chasing the product, with nearly single-minded zeal. And consumers can’t seem to get enough, even as prices escalate to unprecedented heights. (The statewide occupancy rate is over 96% by all accounts, and in the hottest waterfront communities, it is effectively 100%. The average class A rent is $1,973; in Hudson County, the monthly rent for a two-bedroom currently averages more than $2,600.)

At this point, questions have begun to surface, even among gung-ho developers and sanguine investment brokers: With 17,000 more units scheduled for delivery by the end of 2015, is the construction pipeline set to choke? What about the foreclosure properties now streaming steadily from the courts; could they still spurt like a geyser and overwhelm the rental market as many were predicting? And won’t the urban areas in the state’s northern half—some already among the most densely populated places on the globe—simply run out of attractive, buildable sites sometime soon?

The questions bubble, but most market experts believe they ultimately amount to froth. “These are issues to consider,” says David Barry, a co-principal with his brother Michael of Ironstate Development, for many years one of Hudson County’s most active builders, and now expanding into New York City. “I just don’t see any of it happening in an area so close to the tremendous economic engine that is Manhattan.”

In post-recessionary Manhattan, apartment vacancies have slimmed to under 2%, while average rent has swollen to more than $3,700, according to Marcus & Millichap’s second-quarter report. M&M has been advising investors for more than a year that all types of rental property in New Jersey, from brand-new ground-up construction and older buildings in transit-friendly locations, to low-income projects originally built by HUD, have become more reliable generators of respectable returns, first and foremost because the market is booming in Manhattan…

…For the rest of the story, visit the July/August issue of Real Estate Forum.

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